猬哥说币

I dare say, the issues you're currently facing—'not being able to hold BTC positions,' 'getting anxious as soon as I enter ETH contracts,' 'losing money despite correctly analyzing the trend'—are all pitfalls I stumbled into three years ago. It wasn't until I threw the 'mysticism of trading' into the trash that I truly transformed from a 'losing player' into someone who can consistently profit.
First, let's expose my dark history: when I first entered the scene, I was obsessed with the so-called 'technical analysis guru' approach. I filled the K-line charts with various indicators, firmly believing I could accurately predict every rise and fall of BTC. What happened? I thought a breakout above the previous high meant it would definitely go up, only to get harvested by the big players; I believed the support level was unbreakable and held my position until I was liquidated. The funniest part is that every time I lost money, I would scold myself for having a 'poor mindset,' until one day I suddenly realized: where did this mindset issue come from? The real problem was that my trading logic was as flawed as a sieve!

You might not believe it, but I know a hardcore player in the crypto circle who has been immersed for 12 years. He turned an investment of over 200,000 into more than 80 million. At 46 years old, he lives in an old residential area and relies on a second-hand electric scooter to go out. Even buying a vegetable at the market can take him 5 minutes of haggling with the vendor.
Last time I met him for coffee, he was wearing a well-worn polo shirt and ordered the cheapest Americano. I couldn't help but tease him: 'Bro, with your wealth, you should be considered a big shot in the circle. Is it really necessary to be this stingy?' He took a sip of coffee and laughed: 'Money is made through understanding, not by showing off. The vibe of the market keeps me grounded; what the crypto market lacks most is clarity.'

谁还没在币圈做过“赚辆保时捷911开回家”的白日梦？但我敢说，90%的人都是“梦里笑嘻嘻，现实哭唧唧”昨天刚跟一个上海粉丝唠完，这兄弟前段时间差点把自己玩到天台边缘，6000U跟风追土狗、猛加5倍杠杆，半个月亏掉4万U，剩点残渣都够买杯奶茶的了，抱着我消息框哭了半宿！
结果呢？跟着我按规矩操作4个月，直接冲到48万U，现在账户稳在60万U以上，全程没爆过一次仓、没被强制离场过！今天不炫富、不画饼，就掏心窝子跟你们唠唠，我从2万U干到8位数的3条核心逻辑，新手看完直接少踩80%的坑，老韭菜看完都得拍大腿说“早知道就好了”！
先跟你们说个扎心的大实话：币圈赚钱的核心从不是“抓牛币”，而是“先活下来”！那些天天喊你“梭哈才能快速翻倍”的，要么是想割你韭菜的镰刀，要么是亏怕了想拉个垫背的赌徒，听我的，离他们远点！
一、分仓=给账户穿“防弹衣”，梭哈就是裸奔闯雷区
我当时第一时间就跟那上海兄弟说：把你仅剩的6000U拆成三瓣，少一瓣都不行！2000U拿来玩日内短线，每天最多出手1次，赚够3%-5%就立马溜，别贪多跟行情“谈恋爱”；2500U做波段，盯着4小时K线等信号，必须等放量突破了再进场，持仓5-8天，赚15%-20%就收手；剩下1500U当底仓，不管行情多极端都别动，这是你最后翻身的底气，动了就等于把自己的后路全堵死了！
真的，我见过太多新手犯傻，觉得“满仓干一把就能单车变摩托”，兄弟，你这不是变摩托，是变“炮灰”！币圈最不缺的就是黑天鹅，可能前一秒还在涨，后一秒就给你砸穿地板，一次爆仓就彻底出局，连翻盘的机会都没有。记住：活下来，才有资格谈赚钱！
二、别当“勤劳的冤种”，只在行情“冲刺”时出手
我发现很多人有个毛病：一天不交易就浑身难受，觉得自己亏了几个亿。但说真的，市场就像个懒汉，80%的时间都在躺平横盘，只有20%的时间在认真冲刺。你非要在它躺平的时候天天戳它、跟它较劲，不是给平台送手续费是什么？纯属“给券商打工的冤种本种”！
我让那兄弟只等一个信号：均线多头排列+成交量放大，这才是行情要冲刺的明确信号，其余时间坚决空仓，该追剧追剧，该干饭干饭，别跟市场硬耗！而且赚到钱一定要及时兑现，我给他定的规矩是：盈利超40%，立刻提一半到冷钱包存起来，剩下的用盈利去博弈。资深玩家从不是天天操作，而是“要么不动，一动就吃满一段趋势”！
三、用规则管住“恋爱脑”，别让情绪毁了你的账户
币圈最可怕的不是行情差，是你的情绪化交易！很多人亏了就慌，想着“补仓拉低成本”，结果越补越套，最后把自己套成“长期股东”；赚了就贪，想着“再涨点再卖”，结果行情一反转，盈利全没还倒亏。
我让那兄弟死记三条铁规，刻在脑门上：第一，止损严格设2.5%，到点必砍，绝不扛单，别像个恋爱脑似的抱着亏损单不放，觉得“它会回来的”，它不会，它只会把你套得更深；第二，盈利达5%先减一半仓，先把部分收益锁死，剩下的随便玩，就算亏了也不心疼；第三，亏损后绝对不补仓，情绪化补仓就是给亏损“喂饭”，越喂越胖，最后把你吃穷！
#ETH走势分析 $ETH

你是不是也陷在这种循环里：明明背熟了交易技巧，看懂了 K 线形态，账户却越操作越缩水？亏了骂行情，赚了飘上天，转头又把利润吐回去，像被施了魔咒一样在亏损怪圈里兜兜转转？
作为在加密市场摸爬滚打多年的老炮，我敢拍着胸脯说：横在持续亏损和长期盈利之间的，从来不是 “运气不好”，更不是 “行情太坑”—— 而是你嘴上喊着 “懂”，却从来没落地的交易管理，和一到关键时刻就掉线的执行力！
别跟我扯什么 “我还没找到好策略”，多数交易者的问题根本不是策略不行，是把策略当壁纸、把纪律当耳旁风。就拿我用了三年的日内 15 分钟波段系统来说，这玩意儿简单到新手都能看懂，但就是这套 “朴素” 的系统，让我从当初连止损都不敢设的韭菜，熬到现在权益逼近 340W，核心就一个：死磕执行，坚信系统！
先上干货：我的 15 分钟波段系统，落地就能用
1. 趋势判断：别被行情 “毛刺” 骗了
我从不搞花里胡哨的指标，就靠两条均线（EMA20+EMA60）定方向：价格站在双均线上，只做多；压在双均线 Under，只做空。再配个 RSI 辅助看强弱，趋势线选画（主要用来过滤那些骗死人的均线附近假波动）。
这里插句真心话：很多人看趋势只看均线，结果被来回扫损，本质是没过滤 “毛刺”——RSI 跌到 30 附近 + 均线多头排列，那回调大概率是机会；RSI 冲过 70 + 均线空头排列，反弹就是坑，这组合我用了三年，踩坑率直接砍半。
2. 进场策略：两种信号，别贪也别怂
K 线信号进场：上升趋势里，价格回踩均线 + RSI 底背离 + 看涨 K 线（启明星、吞没形态这些），我才动手；下降趋势反过来，反弹均线 + RSI 顶背离 + 看跌 K 线，果断空。别看到个锤子线就冲，没趋势撑腰的 K 线，都是诱骗散户的陷阱。突破进场：比 K 线信号更激进，但必须等 “有效突破”—— 比如上升趋势里突破前期高点，得等收盘站稳再进，别追半路的假突破（我早年吃过这亏，一天被扫三次止损，现在想起来都肉疼）。
3. 出场策略：止损保命，止盈交给市场
止损我分两种：窄止损放进场 K 线最低价下方几点，怕被扫就用宽止损（前波段低点），但绝对不会不止损 —— 那些扛单扛到账户清零的人，本质是把 “侥幸” 当交易逻辑，早晚被市场收拾。
止盈我从不猜顶底：画条趋势线（比如均线金叉后，连前期低点），只要价格没跌破趋势线，就拿着！别总想着 “卖在最高点”，市场比你聪明，趋势没拐头就贪心离场的，最后都得拍大腿后悔。
交易原则：记住这 4 条，少交 80% 学费
顺势为王：逆势抄底的人，我见过的坟头草都两米高了。市场趋势就像洪水，你非要逆着走，不被冲垮才怪。止损是底线：我见过最离谱的交易者，亏了 50% 还扛着，说 “肯定会反弹”感情用真金白银赌 “感觉”，这不是交易，是送钱。止盈别贪也别慌：我一般赚了先平一半仓锁定利润，剩下的跟着趋势走，既不踏空也不把利润吐回去，贪心和恐惧都是盈利的天敌。仓位别作死：满仓梭哈的，建议直接销户。我单笔仓位永远不超总资金的 5%，哪怕再看好的信号，也绝不赌全部身家 市场专治各种不服，别等底裤都没了才醒悟。
#ETH走势分析 $ETH

Here's a heart-wrenching truth: the ones who can truly make money in the crypto circle are no longer those 'wild players' who listen to news and chase trends; instead, there are more and more people who 'seem to understand the industry,' but they lose even worse than beginners. Why are there fewer and fewer people with awareness?
I am Old K, immersed in the crypto market for a full ten years. In 2013, I jumped in with 100,000 savings, and after half a year, I was left with only 20,000, staring at the K-line every day and losing sleep; now my account funds have exceeded 80 million, I own three properties, and I have changed my cars twice, relying not on luck, but on completely stepping on the 'gambler's mentality.'

Brothers! Let me be clear with you, after 12 years in the crypto circle, I haven't relied on any insider information, nor have I touched any 'wealth codes.' I've survived solely on 8 rules I stumbled upon myself, managing to stay afloat through 3 major crashes; not having my account wiped out is already a win, and now I can chat with you all here comfortably.
To be honest, every day in this circle, some people shout 'bottom fishing' and 'hundred times coins,' while others cry out 'liquidated.' I've seen too many newbies get deceived by K-lines and misled by big influencers, losing their principal in just a few days. Today, I'm not going to be vague; I'm sharing my 8 survival rules that I've kept for tough times, all of which are hard-earned insights. After reading this, you can avoid 90% of the detours!

After opening a position, I once made a profit that made me want to take a screenshot and show off. As a result, the market reversed and precisely triggered my stop loss. Just after I cut my losses and left, it started to surge in the direction I had predicted. The feeling of missing out is so frustrating it might drive you crazy lately, right? Stop listening to those “highest realm of stop loss” nonsense—it's all talk! What truly prevents you from being harvested by the big players and missing out on major market movements is real substance. Today, I'm going to share my ultimate “inverse stop loss technique.” After reading this, no one will dare say you're a trading novice!
Let me ask everyone a heart-wrenching question: do you always randomly pick an entry point with a snap decision and then casually set a stop loss? Congratulations, you've hit the fatal pitfall of 90% of retail investors! A stop loss isn’t just a decorative item used to 'save your life' after entering a position; it’s your 'scouting team' sent to investigate the big players' movements—if the scouting team is disorganized, the big players will easily trap you! I've seen too many people set their stop losses at what seems to be a 'reasonable' position, like randomly picking a previous high or low, only to be swept away by the big players, and then the market takes off. Frustrating, right? A truly effective stop loss is never decided on a whim; it has to be based on a 'consensus level line' that the market has tested repeatedly through long and short battles—this is a position that the big players won’t bother to manipulate. Once it breaks and then rebounds back, it’s a signal to make money! Here comes the key point (note this!): after years of navigating the crypto market, the most profitable strategy I’ve found is to go against the flow—first find an effective stop loss level, then work backwards to find the entry point! Don’t foolishly enter a position and then look for a stop loss; you need to focus on those key levels that have been tested multiple times and can't be broken through, treating them as your 'support stop loss level.' Then, set up an ambush based on that level—if the big players come to test it, we’ll be ready for a major move! For example: a certain mainstream cryptocurrency repeatedly tests a level line, frequently spiking high and then retreating, testing the bottom and bouncing back—this is the market consensus level. Wait until it truly breaks below and then rebounds back to this level; don’t rush to enter! Confirm that it can’t effectively break through after the pullback, and then enter, setting your stop loss just slightly outside this level line—the big players want to sweep you? They have to first break the market consensus, and their cost is much higher than yours! Previously, a fan argued with me: 'Isn't this just talking based on charts?' I directly showed him my real trading records—last month, I made a significant gain in ETH-related operations using this strategy, with a stable stop loss and precise entry timing, completely unafraid of the big players manipulating the market. Those who shout about 'stop loss realms' every day should learn how to find effective stop loss levels, after all, we come to the market to make money, not to cultivate immortality!

Who understands this? When I first entered the crypto circle and looked at the red and green bars on the chart, it felt like reading a foreign language. Either I blindly bought and got cut, or I missed the market and regretted it! Later, I realized that mastering candlesticks is like getting the 'detective's magnifying glass' for market dynamics; all the subtlety of the bull-bear game is hidden in it! Today, I'm going to share my top-notch candlestick basics, and after reading it, newbies can instantly become 'market experts' and easily pass the investment entry hurdle!
First, let's understand: what exactly is a candlestick?
Many people don't know that candlesticks are not exclusive to the crypto circle. Going back 300 years, Japanese rice merchants used them to record rice price fluctuations! Because they look like small candles, they are also called 'candlestick charts.' Who would have thought that the wisdom of our ancestors is still applicable in today's crypto market!

Who hasn't stumbled in crypto short trading? Back in the day, I jumped into the contract market with 20U, blew up three times in three months, almost smashed my keyboard shouting 'this market is all scythes'; now, relying on the 9 short trading rules I've painstakingly summarized, I won't say I win every time, but at least I've torn off the label of 'liquidation player', and my account has climbed from 20U to 1190U. Don’t think I’m bragging, crypto short trading has never been about luck or betting size, it’s a practice of turning complex market conditions into simple rules. Today, I’m sharing everything with you, aiming for an open-hearted exchange!
First understand: the core of crypto short trading has never been 'the shorter the better'

After 5 years in the crypto world, I've seen people shouting for "all-in to get rich" only to end up with nothing but their underwear. I've also seen those who quietly roll small funds into large positions. The harsh truth is: those who can consistently profit are not the "gamblers" betting on price fluctuations, but rather those who have ingrained the principle of "stability" into their bones. Today, I'm sharing my top 7 profitable strategies that beginners can follow to minimize tuition fees, and veterans can use to identify gaps. Don't rush to scroll away after reading; make sure to follow me so you can find your way next time you want to copy my homework!
1. The Zen Way of Holding Coins: The simplest yet most counterintuitive method
I would like to call this method the "Lazy Person's Bible in the Crypto World"—choose 1-2 fundamentally strong assets, buy them, and then directly "seal" your wallet. Don't touch trading software for six months to a year. Theoretically, as long as you can hold on, achieving tenfold returns in one cycle is not a dream. But in reality, 90% of beginners can't withstand pullbacks; they panic and cut losses when the price drops by 20%, and rush to take profits when it rises by 30%, only to watch the assets they sold soar to the sky.

It's all fans asking: "Brother Wei, what does stable profit feel like? Is it true that you can rake in a few hundred U every day with your eyes closed and earn 20% monthly?" Every time I see this question, I want to laugh and feel heartbroken. Back then, I jumped into the crypto market with this fantasy, only to lose all my savings and end up in debt, almost forcing myself to stay up all night with my eyes wide open until dawn. Looking back now, those days of ecstasy, collapse, and late-night smoking on the balcony have long become fleeting memories; trading for me is no longer a gamble for life, but just a routine operation in life.

Let me ask a heart-wrenching question: have you ever stayed up all night staring at the screen until your eyes hurt, frantically chasing gains and cutting losses, only to either get liquidated by a spike or hold onto a position until your principal goes to zero?
Don't swipe away! I am Old K, I've been grinding in the crypto circle for 12 years. Since 2013, I entered the market with 5000U and have seen too many people lose money relying on luck. In the end, they lost everything by relying on their own abilities. Some brothers chased high contracts and lost their down payments, while some newbies went all-in on altcoins and lost everything overnight. Meanwhile, my account has always been as steady as a straight line; I haven't flipped in 5 years, and my maximum drawdown has never exceeded 8% of my principal. I have rolled 5000U into 7 figures.

Haven't you also encountered the myth of 'getting rich overnight in the cryptocurrency world'? You dive in and find yourself being pressed to the ground? Don't be silly! I entered the market in 2013 with 10,000 yuan I saved from working while in college. I haven't had a job since graduation, living off cryptocurrencies for 12 years, going from almost losing 500,000 to rolling to over 25 million. The pitfalls I've encountered could circle the exchange three times. Today, let me speak frankly: what can make you money in the cryptocurrency world is never 'taking a gamble', but treating cryptocurrency trading as a serious job from 9 to 5!
In the first two years after entering the market, I was just like the current newcomers: staying up late watching the market like I was on steroids, chasing highs and cutting losses more fiercely than anyone else, thinking that ETH leverage + altcoin spot trading would guarantee easy wins. In the end, I almost squandered 10 million in profits. It wasn't until I was left with only 500,000 that I suddenly realized: for small capital, discipline is 100 times more important than intelligence!

I've seen too many newcomers in the crypto market staying up all night staring at charts until they have panda eyes, buying randomly after getting blinded by the K-line charts. They either chase highs and get trapped crying, or cut losses at the lowest point, ultimately spending enough on fees to buy half a year’s worth of milk tea. Today, I want to share with you my 'lazy trading method' that I've used for 5 years. You don't need to understand news, or memorize complicated indicators, just 2 steps to grasp high win rate signals. Even with small capital, you can gradually roll it into a snowball.
Let me be honest: a high win rate is never about 'guessing the market.'
Many people think that successful traders are 'prophets,' but I once fell into that trap too, running after so-called 'insider information' every day, and ended up losing so much that I was nearly broke. It wasn't until later that I realized: in the crypto market, a practical trading system is 100 times more reliable than 'precise predictions.'

Isn't it true that you often fall into the dead cycle of 'chasing highs and getting trapped, cutting losses and then seeing prices rise'? Either you stare at the candlestick charts all day until your eyes go dark, or you follow so-called 'experts' and end up losing your pants?
Today, I won't hold back; I'm sharing my 'lazy wave trading method' verified over 5 years of practical experience: 15-minute cycles + naked candlesticks + Bollinger Bands + MACD. No complicated analysis, no staying up all night watching the market. Just execute strictly, and you can steadily capture wave profits! Beginners can directly copy the homework after watching, and veterans can also patch up their gaps.
Let me highlight my core point: if you want to sustain profits in cryptocurrency trading, don’t be greedy about 'catching the full wave,' and avoid 'meme coins and erratic varieties.' Just focus on 'smooth trends' + 'clear signals'! Many people lose not because of poor skills, but due to chaotic mindsets and mixed signals. This method helps you filter out garbage signals and lock in high-probability opportunities.

Just now, I was staring at the 1-hour K-line chart of ETH, my blood was boiling, this trend is simply giving us opportunities! Look at the chart: after the price surged to 3374.93, it fell back, now steadily fluctuating on the middle track of the Bollinger Bands (around 3367.53), the EMA and MA moving averages are starting to flatten, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears! The MACD's DIF and DEA are still above the zero axis, but the red bars are shortening, short-term adjustment pressure? I'll say it directly: this is a wash, don't be fooled!

The technical side tells me that there may be short-term fluctuations and adjustments, but this is precisely a good opportunity to increase positions! On-chain data is even more explosive, long-term holders have stable chips like a rock, and institutions are still secretly increasing their holdings! On the news front, expectations for ETFs and ecosystem upgrades are stirring, and the fundamentals are strong to the point of having no friends! Overall, my view is unwavering: ETH will fluctuate and accumulate in the short term, and will inevitably soar in the medium to long term!

Have you also come across various 'crypto market passive income secrets'? Holding onto a guru's trading system and studying it overnight, only to be crushed by the market as soon as you try it? Back in the day, I rushed into the market with the capital I had saved for half a year, obsessed with flashy indicators like MACD and Bollinger Bands, firmly believing that 'mastering the system would make me rich'. In the end, I lost so much that I couldn't even afford bubble tea. Looking back now, I simply didn't understand the 'multiplication table' of trading: candlestick charts!
Don't think that the basics of candlestick charts are insignificant; this thing is like the foundation of a house. If you can't even lay bricks, how do you expect to build a skyscraper? I've seen too many newcomers who jump straight into chasing 'advanced strategies' and 'contract secrets', only to have their foundations collapse. No matter how fancy the architecture is, it will still fall apart. Today, I'm sharing the practical candlestick insights I've summarized over many years of stumbling around, all real stuff filtered from actual trading, not the 'theoretical discussions' found in books.

A few days ago, the incident where game streamer Lan Zhanfei was precisely trapped by a 'fellow villager' made me break out in a cold sweat. This is not just a case of an internet celebrity; it's a tailor-made risk lesson for all of us in the crypto circle who love to 'show off'! Especially for those friends who post transfer screenshots, flaunt NFT holdings, and pinpoint on-chain offline activities daily, stop typing right now—this article can help you protect your wallet!
Let's briefly review the situation: Lan Zhanfei has made himself a 'transparent person,' posting his itinerary, income, and lifestyle habits online. As a result, he was targeted by someone with ill intentions, who approached him six months in advance, ultimately leading to a painful 'backstab.' Don't think this is just bad luck for him; in our crypto circle, this kind of 'transparent flaunting' is only going to double the risk—after all, what you're showcasing isn't just a luxury watch steering wheel, but real on-chain assets!