Bitcoin’s Breakout Toward $108,500 Keeps Failing — But Both Roadblocks Are Fixable
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 2.8% in the past 24 hours, trading near $92,500. The broader structure on the daily chart still shows a clean inverse head-and-shoulders (IHS) formation targeting $108,500 — but every breakout attempt continues to stall before gaining momentum.
Two major factors explain why the move keeps failing. The encouraging part? Both are temporary and can flip bullish quickly.
⭐ 1. A Stubborn Neckline at $93,700 Keeps Rejecting the Breakout
Bitcoin’s IHS pattern — formed around November 16 — remains perfectly intact.
However, the neckline at $93,700 has rejected every single breakout attempt so far.
Until Bitcoin delivers a strong daily candle close above $93,700, the IHS pattern cannot activate.
This is currently the primary technical barrier holding BTC back.
⭐ 2. Whale Support Is Weak — Big Holders Are Still Hesitant
Entities holding 1,000+ BTC have been reducing their holdings since November 19.
Whale wallets dropped to 1,303 on December 3 — a monthly low.
This metric has barely recovered, signaling caution among large players
This creates a problem:
👉 When price rises but whales reduce exposure, the rally loses strength and fails to break resistance.
A recent example illustrates this clearly:
Bitcoin hit $93,400 (Dec 2–3)
Whales fell from 1,316 → 1,303
Price corrected to $89,300 afterward (≈4.4% drop)
Whales are not structurally bearish — they’re simply waiting for a convincing breakout.
Why These Problems Are Fixable
Despite weak whale participation, Bitcoin currently has a massive short-squeeze setup building beneath the chart.
Over the past 30 days on Binance:
Short liquidations: $3.66B
Long liquidations: $2.22B
Shorts are ~50% higher, meaning the market is heavily tilted against price.
👉 This imbalance can create explosive upside if BTC breaks $93,700.
We’ve already seen this several times recently:
Small 1–2% price moves suddenly extended as short positions were wiped out, creating forced buying pressure
If Bitcoin Clears $93,700 — The Road to $108,500 Opens
A clean move above $93,700 triggers the short squeeze and likely leads to:
$94,600 → First major gateway
$105,200 → Bulk resistance cluster
$108,500 → Full IHS measured target
(≈15.7% above the neckline)
Once momentum kicks in, whales typically return, accelerating the upside.
Key Levels to Watch
Type level Meaning
Neckline (must-break) $93,700 . Confirms IHS pattern
Momentum Gate $94,600 Short-squeeze ignition
Major Resistance $105,200 Final barrier before target
Measured Target $108,500 Full pattern projection
Pattern Valid Above $83,800 Bullish
Invalidation. $80,500 Deeper
✅ Analysis: What the Chart Really Says Now
Here’s the additional expert insight based on price action, funding data, and liquidity structure:
1. The $93,700 level is more than a neckline — it’s a liquidity wall
Right above this zone lies:
Heavy short stop-loss clusters
A large CVD imbalance
Bids thinning above $94,000
This suggests that market makers want liquidity before moving price.
A wick above $93,700 could trigger a cascade of squeezes.
2. Whales are not bearish — they are positioning for volatility
On-chain whale outflows are decreasing, but exchange inflows are not rising sharply, meaning:
Whales are not selling aggressively
They are simply waiting for confirmation
This is typical before a major breakout.
3. Derivatives market is primed for a violent move
Funding rates are neutral to slightly negative
OI (open interest) is high but not euphoric
This is the perfect environment for a short squeeze-driven breakout.
4. Risk of downside still exists — but limited unless $83,800 breaks
Below $83,800, liquidity pockets form down to:
$80,500 (IHS invalidation)
$78,200 (FVG + CME gap)
Until then, the bullish structure is untouched.
🎯 Final Outcome: Breakout is Delayed, Not Canceled
Bitcoin’s path to $108,500 remains fully intact.
The rally is being delayed by two temporary factors:
A difficult but breakable resistance at $93,700
Whales waiting for confirmation
Once BTC closes above $93,700, a massive short squeeze can occur — even without whale support.
Momentum will likely bring the whales back in, and the breakout toward $105,200 → $108,500 becomes highly probable.
