Don't just focus on the surface action of "rate cuts"; the main event tonight has just begun.
The market is very excited right now, but the 25 basis point rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion, and the price has already reflected this in advance. What will truly determine the direction moving forward is the "subtext" hidden in the Federal Reserve's decision. Tonight, we will know the answer.
Let's talk about ETH, which likely has three potential paths ahead that are directly related to your account:
Most probable: Dovish rate cut, but future remains unclear.
The Federal Reserve announces a rate cut, but Powell immediately dampens expectations, emphasizing that this does not mean the beginning of a easing cycle, and we will have to see the data going forward.
For ETH, this is a typical case of "good news fully priced in." The price may spike symbolically and then retreat due to unmet expectations, entering a consolidation phase. So, definitely avoid chasing highs.
Moderate probability: Clear shift to easing.
The Federal Reserve not only cuts rates but also hints at continuing this next year, with a clear shift towards monetary easing.
This would be a strong boost for ETH. The real macroeconomic benefits would arrive, and funds would seek out assets like ETH, with prices expected to break previous highs and move towards the $3600 region.
Low probability risk: Market collectively misjudges.
The Federal Reserve shows an unexpectedly hawkish stance, even hinting that there is no urgency for further rate cuts.
This would trigger a comprehensive correction. Optimistic sentiment would instantly reverse, and ETH would face heavy selling pressure, with key support to watch at the $3000 line.
Your core strategy:
On such an emotional night, you must maintain absolute patience.
The key action is to "wait." The first hour after the announcement is the most chaotic, with intense volatility and unclear direction. The true trend often becomes clearer only during the press conference.
The best practice is to keep your hands steady and let the market digest the first wave of emotional impact. Wait until the situation clarifies before looking for your own opportunity.
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