(A comprehensive analysis of structure × liquidity × main force inducement behavior)
1. Why do 90% of reversals that you think are "turning points" actually turn out to be "inducement traps"?
Most retail investors only have one sentence to understand reversals:
"It has fallen too much, it should rise now."
or
"It has risen too much, it should fall now."
This is the most amateur thought.
Real traders never judge trends this way.
Market reversals are never because of "excessive rise or fall",
but because:
The original structure can no longer support the original direction, and funds are forced to reprice.
Breaking structure is not when the price breaks the line,
but:
Liquidity support disappears, depth is unbalanced, counterparty void.
Prices are just reflected appearances.
Two, all reversals stem from 'structural triple collapse'
The real reversal does not happen in an instant,
but appears with the following three collapses:
① Structure break (market structure break)
Structure break is not breaking a certain moving average, not a MACD dead cross,
but is:
The arrangement of highs and lows is forcibly changed, leading to the destruction of trend logic.
For example, a coin that is following an upward structure:
Previous highs are constantly broken
Pullbacks can all be caught
There are orders at depth
Liquidity keeps up
As long as one of these four points starts to show abnormality,
it indicates that the structure begins to loosen.
The real break is:
New highs can't be pushed up + downwards forced through + depth can't hold
At this time, the trend is really 'broken'.
② Liquidity void
All crashes and surges have a common feature:
the upper or lower layer suddenly becomes 'air'.
Why does air appear?
Because the main force will not use large funds to hard smash, nor will they use large funds to hard pull.
They will only do one thing:
Find places without depth, trigger maximum panic with minimal cost.
The market is not pushed out by capital,
but is triggered by:
The direction lacking liquidity is deadly.
Reversals often occur at:
Large orders suddenly cancel
Orders are instantly empty
Depth collapses
Resistance levels disappear
Orders or support suddenly disappear
Retail investors see it as 'instant crash'.
Traders see it as:
The main force found the cheapest direction to kill.
③ Counterparty exhaustion
This is a key link that most people can't understand but is decisive.
The reversal is not because you want to reverse,
but because:
The side pushing the trend - has no strength left.
For example:
Buying pressure fails during the rise
Selling pressure breaks off during the decline
Fewer and fewer people are adding positions
More and more people are closing positions
Leverage capital is squeezed
Fee rate starts to reverse
Why does the main force want to reverse the market?
Because the counterparty of the original direction is about to die,
If this continues, they won't make more money.
What they want to do is:
Change direction, harvest the other side.
Three, before the main force reverses, they will do two things: wash, trick
Retail investors think the K line can explain the market,
but professional traders know:
The K line is a script written by the main force.
Before the main force prepares to reverse,
They will do two things:
① Shakeout - clearing out those following the trend
Before an upward reversal, the following will occur:
False breakout
Quick spike
Targeted stop-loss sweep
Constantly false breakouts of previous highs
Repeated tail flicking
The purpose is:
Washing all 'trend-following longs' to exhaustion, leaving only a weak depth.
The same applies before a downward reversal:
False break
Bottom spike
Strong pullback
Repeatedly testing the low point
Only when the 'tail capital' of the trend is cleared out,
will the main force not encounter resistance.
② Induce - tricking you into standing against the trend
Before a market reversal, the following will definitely occur:
Emotional reversal (social media suddenly unanimous bullish/bearish)
The K line creates the illusion of trend continuation
Large orders make you think 'pressure/support is strong'
Suddenly a seemingly breakthrough false move appears
Why trick?
Because:
To reverse, the main force needs the counterparty in the opposite direction.
If no one is willing to take it, they can't pull it up or push it down.
You think you are following the trend,
but in fact, you are contributing liquidity.
Four, three core signals of structural reversal
This is the most content that can increase your followers because no one explains it so clearly.
① Depth changes from 'one-sided steps' to 'layered structure'
When the trend is established, depth presents:
Upward trend: lower support orders in steps
Downward trend: upper pressure order in steps
Before a trend reversal:
Steps will disappear, becoming chaotic, uneven, and hollow.
This is the highest probability reversal signal.
② Funding rates suddenly jump from one extreme to another
For example:
Positive rate → Rapidly turns negative
Negative rate → Rapidly turns positive
This is not a change in market sentiment,
but is:
Forcing the original direction's positions to blow up.
If at this time depth is also canceling orders,
The probability of reversal approaches 90%.
③ The large-level structure is penetrated all at once
For example:
The trend line of three low points is broken by a long negative line
Repeatedly tested resistance levels are perfectly broken by a long positive line
The market does not change slowly.
Reversals are:
Broken all at once.
Once the backbone of the trend is broken,
the next is 'centrifugal trend', it can't stop at all.
Five, why is the market after the reversal so 'smooth'?
Why does the market after the reversal move so decisively?
Because:
The counterparty has already been killed during the reversal
Depth becomes clean, the main force's push cost is minimal
Forced liquidation pushes prices to sprint
The direction is consistent, all resistance is gone
The upward trend will keep rising,
Because the shorts have been cleaned out.
The downward trend will keep falling,
Because the bulls have been cleared out.
The market is not due to the strength of bulls and bears,
but because:
One side has already died.
