Note: This article is based on the market situation and public information as of December 10, 2025 (Beijing Time), and is a review of the market and a framework for strategy, not constituting any investment advice.
1. Today's Market Overview (Current Situation)
Based on multiple market and information sources, it can be roughly summarized as:
BTC
Price fluctuates in the range of $90,000–$92,000;
Daily highs and lows are basically completed in the range of about 90k ~ 94k;
Overall in a state of high-level consolidation + waiting for macro events to unfold.
ETH
Price fluctuates in the range of $3,100–$3,300;
24h increase is significantly stronger than BTC;
ETH/BTC has emerged from a three-month downtrend and started to fight back, interpreted by many as a signal of 'altcoin season' coming.
Mainstream altcoins
The market cap L1 / leaders (SOL, AVAX, ADA, DOT, AAVE, OP, TIA, STX, DOGE, etc.) have generally risen 24h, with strong ones about +10–15%;
A small number of established coins (like some old public chains, old coins) are flat or slightly adjusted.
Macro & liquidity
The market is highly focused on FOMC discussions + Powell's speech;
The expectation of a further interest rate cut of 25bp has basically been priced in, what really affects the market is the forward guidance on future interest rate paths;
The supply of BTC on exchanges continues to decrease, and ETF funds have reappeared with net inflows;
DeFi TVL rebounded, and leveraged shorts have seen significant liquidations in recent days, overall leverage levels have cooled.
Overall impression summarized in one sentence:
The overall trend is bullish, but it is in a high consolidation phase before important macro events - bulls are dominant, and funds are defensive; the real big direction may need to wait until after the FOMC.
Two, BTC: daily structure and key price levels
1. Daily structure
Prices are roughly fluctuating in the range of about 90k–94k;
In the high platform period of the previous rising channel, the slope has slowed down;
Above 90k has been bought multiple times, and high-level chips have not shown obvious loosening;
The upper edge of the 93–95k area has heavy selling pressure and is an important short-term resistance zone.
2. Key price levels (short-term perspective)
Support
First support: around 90k (bottom of the box, multiple stops during the day);
Second support: 88k–89k range, usually requires 'event impact + active selling' to be effectively broken, which is an important boundary between bulls and bears.
Resistance
Near-term resistance: 93–95k range, multiple short-term highs and pullbacks;
If it breaks out with volume and stabilizes above 95k, technically it will point to: the previous high area;
Even testing the psychological barrier of 100k.
3. Funds and sentiment
ETFs and institutions: ETF net inflows have somewhat recovered but at a pace slower than the early bull phase this year;
Institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long-term but are more cautious at high levels.
On-chain and supply: a large amount of BTC has been transferred from exchanges to cold wallets / long-term holding addresses;
Long-term tightening of supply supports the mid to long-term price center.
Three, ETH: daily trends and structural logic
1. Daily performance
Price fluctuates in the range of $3,100–$3,300;
Daily and 24h gains are significantly stronger than BTC;
ETH/BTC exchange rate has shown a reversal structure after a long period of decline: previously continued to weaken;
In recent days, a structure of 'unable to fall → sideways → strong surge' has appeared.
2. Key price levels
Support
Short-term key support: around 3,100;
Psychological support: $3,000 whole number, if effectively broken, the short-term strong structure may come to an end.
Resistance
Near-term resistance: 3,350–3,400 range;
If it breaks out with volume and stabilizes in that area, there is an opportunity to touch 3,500+.
3. Structural logic
ETH's relative reversal to BTC + DeFi and ecosystem expectations is an important wind vane for the current market;
Many institutions and traders view this round of ETH strength as a 'prelude to altcoin season': first BTC leads the rise;
Then ETH follows;
Finally, funds diffuse to L1, L2, DeFi, AI, Meme, and other segmented tracks.
Four, mainstream altcoins: in the 'early rotation' stage
1. The leading L1 & DeFi in the market
SOL, AVAX, ADA, DOT, AAVE, OP, TIA, STX, etc.: 24h gains generally in the range of +5% ~ +15%;
The driving force for the rise is more about following the Beta elasticity of BTC/ETH + improving liquidity expectations;
Have not yet seen widespread occurrences of 'single coin super strong fundamentals driving independent movements'.
2. Meme, AI, and privacy sectors
Meme (Dogecoin, Sol Meme, etc.): following the market volume, funds have begun to speculate on 'high Beta altcoin season';
Volatility is more severe, and the risk of chasing highs is significant.
AI concepts (such as FET, etc.): influenced by AI narratives and traditional tech stocks, overall relatively active.
Privacy coins (ZEC / XMR etc.): Showed slightly stronger performance in this round of rebound, with funds doing structured layouts for 'regulatory risk hedging + privacy asset allocation'.
3. Periodic judgment
The current state of mainstream altcoins can be summarized as:
'Early rotation + increasing differentiation, not yet fully crazy'.
Five, trading plan recommendations (divided by cycle and variety)
The following are strategy framework ideas, not specific buy-sell instructions; you need to make secondary decisions based on your own positions, risk control, and rhythm.
1. Short-term trading plan (1–3 days)
(1) BTC short-term framework
Core idea: mainly buy low and sell high within the box, reduce leverage before and after FOMC, avoid being pierced by up and down spikes.
Reference rhythm: range definition: 90k–95k box;
90k–91k range: can consider light positions to buy in batches / increase spot or low leverage longs;
93k–95k range: do not blindly chase highs;
Suitable for those who already have long positions to take profits in batches / move stop losses to lock in profits;
Aggressive traders can try to short with small positions against the trend, but must set strict stop losses.
If it breaks out with volume and stabilizes above 95k: the box is expected to break upwards;
The cost-effectiveness of chasing short-term longs is actually higher than currently (confirm before entering).
Key: Try to reduce leverage and control overall risk exposure before and after the FOMC, putting survival first.
(2) ETH short-term framework
ETH is currently a strong coin, and the short-term thinking is more inclined to 'buy on dips' rather than impulsively chasing highs: pay attention to the pressure area of 3,350–3,500 above;
If it pulls back to 3,150–3,200 and shows clear stop-loss signals, consider buying in batches;
Once it breaks below $3,100 with increased volume on the downside: the short-term strong structure is broken;
Can temporarily exit and observe, waiting for a new round of structural reconstruction.
(3) Mainstream altcoin short-term framework
Direction choice: prioritize following strong L1 / DeFi leaders (such as SOL, AVAX, ADA, AAVE, OP, etc.) that are strong with BTC / ETH;
Try to avoid high-flying low-cap coins that have just risen 30–50%, reducing the probability of catching the last leg.
Risk linkage: take BTC / ETH key levels as 'general gates': if BTC breaks below 90k or ETH breaks below 3,000: appropriately reduce altcoin positions and holding time;
If BTC breaks out and stabilizes at 94–95k, and ETH stabilizes above 3,300: can moderately open altcoin positions to enhance Beta exposure.
2. Mid-term trading plan (weeks to months)
(1) BTC mid-term ideas
Big logic: continuous inflow of ETFs;
Exchange inventories are declining;
The medium to long-term macro environment has the opportunity to enter a 'low interest rate + high risk appetite' phase;
Generally bullish on BTC over a 1–2 year dimension.
Mid-term operating framework: consider 90k–95k as the current stage's 'value center';
If a pullback to 85k–88k occurs in the coming weeks: it is a relatively comfortable mid-term accumulation zone;
If BTC breaks out and stabilizes above 100k after the FOMC: prefer a strategy of 'holding + reducing positions on highs rather than making large additions'.
(2) ETH mid-term ideas
Logic: ETH's role as 'the operating system of the crypto world + L2 mother chain' remains solid;
Restaking / DeFi / L2 narratives still have space in the medium to long term.
Operating framework: consider the 3,000–3,200 range as a reasonable mid-term entry area;
If the market rises to the range of $3,800–$4,200: gradually reduce some high-cost positions;
Retain a portion of 'core long-term positions'.
(3) Mainstream altcoin mid-term ideas
More suitable for mid-term holding objects: projects with long-term narratives + real ecosystem activity: quality L1/L2;
DeFi infrastructure;
Key components of the Ethereum ecosystem (LSD, Restaking, etc.).
Position and entry points: allocate a maximum of 30% to altcoins within the total position (conservatives can go lower);
Prioritize buying in batches on days of significant market downturns (for example, BTC single-day drop >8–10%) rather than chasing highs on peak days.
3. Long-term trading plan (1–3 years)
(1) BTC long-term positioning
The mainstream long-term view of the market: under the background of 'compliant ETF + institutional allocation + global inflation / monetary over-issuance expectations';
BTC is still regarded as a core long-term asset.
Practical plan for individuals: set a long-term BTC target allocation ratio for yourself (for example, 5–20% of total assets, varies by person);
Complete the position with a method of dollar-cost averaging + increasing positions during significant pullbacks;
Long-term focus: macro liquidity;
Compliance and regulatory progress;
ETF / institutional holding structure changes;
And not daily or even daily fluctuations.
(2) ETH and mainstream altcoin long-term positioning
ETH: more inclined to be an 'offensive core asset';
In long-term structure, it can be understood as: BTC = digital gold / value anchor;
ETH = The operating system of the crypto world / productivity platform.
Mainstream altcoins: be cautious about the idea of 'long-term holding small cap pure meme coins';
Targets that can hold for 1–3 years are more likely to be a few solid projects with solid foundations and continuously expanding ecosystems L1/L2/infrastructure tokens;
The vast majority of altcoins are more suitable to be viewed as 'medium to short-term trading targets' rather than serious long-term assets.
Six, risk warning and execution SOP summary
1. The biggest external uncertainty currently: FOMC
The decision itself (whether to cut interest rates, the extent of the cut) is indeed important;
But what really drives market pricing is: the dot plot;
Outlook on future interest rate paths for over a year;
Description and attitude towards inflation and economic growth.
Practical experience: on FOMC day and the next day, the market often sees 'up and down spikes + quick reversals';
Very unfriendly to highly leveraged accounts;
More suitable for: observing;
Low leverage;
Or hold only part of the spot.
2. A feasible execution template (reference)
If you are generally bullish and already have a certain position, you can refer to:
Retain the core spot positions of BTC / ETH, do not be easily washed out by short-term fluctuations;
Before and after major macro events (like FOMC): reduce contract leverage to half or even lower than usual;
Try to keep total positions below your psychological safety line;
Take BTC 90k / ETH 3,100 as a short-term 'sentiment gate': if effectively broken: reduce altcoin positions;
Consider reducing some BTC / ETH depending on the situation;
If it effectively stabilizes and breaks through the upper key resistance (BTC 95k, ETH around 3,400): can moderately increase overall positions and altcoin Beta exposure;
A more conservative approach: completely wait until the FOMC dust settles;
Observe the market structure for 1–2 more days;
Consider adding positions or switching strategies - sacrificing a little price for structural certainty.
Summary
Short-term: BTC oscillates at high levels within the 90k–95k box, ETH is relatively strong, and mainstream altcoins are in the early rotation stage.
Mid-term: BTC is still the most important trend anchor, ETH's structure is improving, and quality L1/L2/DeFi is suitable as mid-term speculative targets.
Long-term: BTC is suitable as a core long-term asset allocation, ETH is an important offensive asset, and altcoins should be strictly selected and controlled in overall proportion.
Risk management always takes precedence over single market opportunities - especially before and after major macro events, surviving is the only opportunity to earn in the next round.
All views are only for information organization and strategy framework reference and do not constitute specific investment advice for anyone. Please make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance and actual situation.
