Friends, I am Bai Yue. Just finished watching the market, two charts in front of me, an explosion of information. To put it directly: from tonight until tomorrow morning, the market will make a big move, the turning point for ETH is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut! Is it bullish or bearish?
Looking at the news: at 3 AM, the entire market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to 'fire the starting gun'.
At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The expectation is to maintain it at 4.00% (previous value 3.75%). This is not a rate cut, but a 'wait and see' after pausing rate hikes.
What impact will it have?
If it meets expectations (4.00%): the market will likely interpret it as 'bearish sentiment exhausted', as there are no more hawkish signals. Funds may flow back to risk assets, and Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience a rebound. Key attention should be on what the Fed Chairman says afterwards, whether it is 'hawkish pause' or 'dovish pause'.
If it exceeds expectations (interest rate rises to 4.25% or higher): that would be a black swan event, the dollar will strengthen instantly, and all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, could experience a sharp short-term drop. However, I think the probability is low.
If it is below expectations (for example, still 3.75%): that would be a super positive signal, indicating the Federal Reserve is more 'dovish' than expected, and the market will celebrate directly.
First, look at the technical aspect: ETH is 'pretending to sleep,' but is about to wake up.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, ETH is currently stuck around $3310, neither up nor down, like someone 'pretending to sleep.' But this is just surface calm.
Key lines drawn: The yellow Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the upper band at 3387 and the lower band at 2965. This indicates that volatility is decreasing, and the market is holding back for a big move; the price will soon choose a direction to break through. Currently, the price is between the upper and middle bands, not weak.
Bull-bear divide: The purple Fibonacci line on the chart provides several key levels. Simply put, if it holds above 3310, look for pressure at 3380; if it breaks below 3250, be cautious as it tests stronger support below.
Indicator signals: The MACD below is sticking near the zero line, with both red and green bars being very short. This is a standard precursor to directional choice, with both bulls and bears waiting for an external force to break the balance.
Bai Yue's personal view and operational suggestions:
My view is that the probability of meeting expectations is the highest. The market has already digested the expectation of a "rate cut," but the actual trend often occurs within half an hour after the news is announced, with spikes up and down. Everyone should avoid blindly opening positions; if you're unsure, you can follow Bai Yue, who will provide real-time analysis in the village and give the current best entry points!
Operational ideas for brothers and sisters (contact me for detailed points)
Keep an eye on key positions: Strong resistance above is seen in the 3380-3400 area, where the upper Bollinger Band and Fibonacci pressure zone meet. If it can break through and hold here with volume, short-term space will open up. Defensive support below is seen in the 3250-3280 area.
Position management is key: Before 3 AM, avoid heavily betting on direction. For those with positions, set a trailing stop. For those looking to enter, wait for clear direction and test the key support before trying a small long position, or follow after a breakout of key resistance.
Maintain a steady mindset: Regardless of whether the news is good or bad, the market reaction can be very intense. Don't let a single spike up or down confuse you, and don't chase after sudden price surges or drops. Plan your trades, and trade your plan.
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Bai Yue will continue to help everyone keep an eye on on-chain dynamics, and we will steadily move forward together! Follow Bai Yue and participate in every attack by the villagers of Bai Yue! Bai Yue will announce specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day!
