I am Bai Yue. I just stared at the market and saw SOL hovering around $131, unable to go up or down, feeling uncomfortable like constipation. Then I looked at the news, and good heavens, the Bank of Japan is up to something again! With these two events coinciding, the market feels off. Don't panic, let me sort it out for you.
Looking at the external 'news': the Bank of Japan is about to withdraw liquidity!
Earlier this afternoon, Reuters broke a big story: over 90% of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week from 0.5% to 0.75%! Moreover, it might reach 1% before September next year!
What does this have to do with the crypto world? It has a big relation!
The global "cheap money" has decreased again: Japan is the last major economy in the world to maintain negative/very low interest rates. When it raises interest rates, it means the cost of global funds is rising again. Borrowing nearly zero-interest yen from Japan to buy globally in "arbitrage trades" will become more expensive. Some hot money may need to withdraw or may not dare to be so reckless.
Emotionally, let me hit you with a stick: the market is already fragile, and the SOL technical aspect is also poor. Any news of "global tightening liquidity" will be amplified into negative news. It's like the room is already a bit cold, and someone suddenly opens the window a bit wider; everyone's first reaction is definitely "oh no, it's colder now," and they shiver for a moment.
Directly looking at the 4-hour chart, in summary: the rebound is weak, and the pressure is immense.
Prices are being pressed down: from $171 all the way down to $130!
The key lines are all overhead: the two purple pressure levels around 132 in the chart, and that black upward trend line, have all become the "ceiling". Prices are firmly pressed below, and every time they try to surge upwards, they are pushed back down, forming a downward sloping channel.
Indicators collectively "caught a cold": MACD is below the zero axis with a death cross, and the green bars (negative values) are still lengthening, indicating that the downward momentum has not been fully released. RSI is around 35, although it hasn't reached the extreme oversold zone, it clearly tells you: the bears are dominant now, don't force it.
Conclusion: Technically, SOL is in a weak oscillation in the short term, with a bearish bias. The position at 131 is not a bottom, just a midway rest stop; the real test lies in the support below. If 131 cannot hold, the next key position to watch is around the previous low near 121.
Bai Yue's views and operational suggestions:
Looking at these two matters together, you will understand: SOL is currently facing both internal and external troubles. The technical trend is weak, and there are rumors outside that may withdraw global liquidity. Therefore, don't be misled by the fact that 131 seems to be unable to fall further; the upward momentum is very weak, and it could easily be driven down by news.
What should retail investors do? Remember three words: don't rush! (The operational advice is only half; find me for detailed points)@Crypto白玥
Bulls: Keep your hands steady! This is definitely not the time to rush in with your eyes closed. Right-side signals have not appeared, just watch the show. If you really want to position yourself, wait for it to drop thoroughly and see if there are panic sell-off opportunities near the previous low of 121; that would be a high cost-performance position.
Bears: If the price effectively breaks below the 131-130 oscillation platform and the rebound is weak, then the downside space may open up again.
Everyone: In the next few days, in addition to focusing on SOL's technical points, be sure to keep a close eye on the results of the Bank of Japan's meeting next week.
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Bai Yue will continue to help everyone monitor on-chain dynamics and move steadily forward together! Follow Bai Yue and participate in every attack of Bai Yue's villagers! Bai Yue will announce specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day!
