Tonight, the cryptocurrency market is likely to have significant movements, depending on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech.

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's attitude is the biggest variable. If dovish signals are released, risk assets may rise; if hawkish, caution should be exercised regarding downside risks. On the technical side, Bitcoin's resistance levels are at $94,000 - $95,000, and support levels are at $89,000 - $90,000; Ethereum's resistance levels are $3,350 - $3,400, and support levels are $3,100 - $3,200. The price movements around these key levels are worth paying close attention to. In terms of market structure, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours has been high, with high leverage, and one-sided volatility may trigger a chain liquidation, exacerbating the price fluctuations.

There are three possible scenarios for the market. First, a dovish rate cut, with a moderate probability, which would boost market risk appetite, allowing Bitcoin to potentially challenge the $94,000 - $95,000 resistance range and Ethereum to lead the rally, with altcoins also rising. Second, a hawkish rate cut, with a higher probability, which implies 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'; the market may be disappointed, causing a pullback in cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, with Bitcoin potentially testing support levels and Ethereum also pulling back. Third, maintaining the status quo, with a lower probability, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly keeps interest rates unchanged, the market will experience violent fluctuations, and Bitcoin may drop significantly.

In the evening, keep an eye on some real-time indicators. A decline in the US dollar index usually favors cryptocurrencies; when prices break through key positions, trading volume should significantly increase; a rise without volume may be a false breakout; during a market surge, funding rates are abnormally high, and excessive long leverage poses a risk of pullback; if the fear and greed index can quickly enter the greed zone, it indicates an improvement in market sentiment.

Recently, I plan to ambush a potential coin with a high chance of a strong surge, expecting a 7-10x return is not an issue. Friends who want to join this big opportunity can directly share 聊天室. #加密市场观察 #美国ADP数据超预期