Tonight at 3 AM, the cryptocurrency market faces a "life and death moment"! The Federal Reserve's decision becomes the key trigger
Tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision is crucial for the cryptocurrency market, with the market direction filled with uncertainty.
From a macro perspective, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus is on the future policy signals it releases. If Powell expresses a dovish stance, hinting at continued rate cuts, it would be beneficial for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially attracting capital inflows and enhancing market risk appetite, while simultaneously decreasing the attractiveness of the dollar, making dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies more appealing to holders of other currencies. However, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates while emphasizing inflation risks, suggesting the possibility of pausing rate cuts later, the market may decline due to disappointment, and the rate cut has been highly anticipated by the market, necessitating caution against "buying the expectation, selling the fact" that could lead to price corrections.
From the internal structure of the market, the cryptocurrency derivatives market is severely leveraged, with open contract volumes at high levels. Before major events, if prices fluctuate rapidly in one direction, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, exacerbating market volatility. Bitcoin and Ethereum are at critical technical positions; Bitcoin needs to stabilize above the $90,000 mark and challenge the $94,000 - $95,000 resistance zone, while Ethereum's strength line is around $3,100, with the next target after stabilization at the $3,300 - $3,400 area. The competition for these technical levels will interact with macro news, further amplifying market volatility.
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