Gold prices fluctuated narrowly on December 10th, with the Fed's interest rate path becoming the key to breaking the deadlock!
Market sentiment was cautious, and trading activity was low, directly limiting the intraday volatility of gold prices. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to bring the federal funds rate range to 3.50%-3.75% is approaching 90%. This expectation has already been fully priced into the market, and the decision itself is unlikely to cause a significant impact.
What truly dominates the future direction of gold is the Fed's forward guidance on the interest rate path for 2026. The key focus is on two signals: first, the clues about the pace of interest rate cuts revealed in the latest economic forecast "dot plot," and second, Powell's policy wording at the press conference. These two will directly clarify the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts next year, becoming the key to breaking the stalemate in gold price fluctuations.
