$ETH $BNB $DOGE 【Heavy Countdown】The Fed's rate cut decision is almost certain tomorrow! Probability soars close to 90%, three major reasons exposed
On December 11th, Beijing time, the results of the Fed's interest rate meeting, which global markets are paying attention to, will be revealed. The market has almost reached a consensus in advance: a rate cut of 25 basis points. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, this probability is now close to 90%.
Three key signals have emerged:
1. Sudden weakness in the labor market: Due to the previous government shutdown, key data is missing, but the released 'small non-farm' ADP employment report has raised alarms. In November, ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, hitting the lowest level since March 2023, contrary to market expectations of growth.
2. Inflation pressure continues to ease: Although the October CPI data was not released for reasons, the September core CPI only increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to 3.0%, reaching a six-month low, indicating a solidifying trend of easing inflation.
3. Signs of economic growth slowdown: The Fed's latest 'Beige Book' shows that from October to mid-November, U.S. consumer spending has shown signs of fatigue, especially among price-sensitive low- and middle-income households, tightening their wallets and slowing down non-essential spending.
"Hawkish rate cut" expectations rise: Powell's balancing act
The market generally expects that Chairman Powell is very likely to adopt a "hawkish rate cut" strategy — that is, while announcing a rate cut, he emphasizes through strong wording that the threshold for future rate cuts is very high, in order to appease internal dissenting voices and manage market expectations for future aggressive easing.
With the transition imminent: The path to easing in 2026 has been set, but there are differences in pace
Powell's term as chairman will end in May 2026. Regardless of who the successor is, market analysts believe that it is already a foregone conclusion that the Fed will shift to an easing rate cut path in 2026, with the only debate being the pace and magnitude of the cuts.
Currently, the policy tendencies of three chairman candidates are gradually becoming clear:
· Kevin Hassett (popular candidate): Advocates for aggressive rate cuts, potentially targeting rates below 3%, and emphasizes alignment with government economic goals, which may weaken the Fed's independence.
· Christopher Waller (current board member): Supports data-driven gradual rate cuts, striving for a balance between political pressure and policy independence. #ETH走势分析 #加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐
