Bitcoin is currently positioned under a critical resistance level, while global markets prepare for what is expected to be the third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve – a cut that may come with a markedly "hawkish" message.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's recent upward push from the over $89,000 area to the early $90,000s reflects an improvement in short-term momentum, but the market is now showing hesitation as traders balance the recovery in the technical structure against more hawkish macroeconomic expectations.
After regaining control of the short-term trend earlier in the week, Bitcoin's progress has slowed as price faces an increasing range of supply.
The short-term trend has clearly shifted away from a defensive posture, but the broader structure remains unresolved. This reflects a market trying to rotate back to trend continuity while still facing a state of uncertainty driven by macroeconomic factors.
As long as Bitcoin remains constrained under its broader trend resistance, upward progress is likely to remain challenging rather than explosive.
Momentum indicators are reinforcing this transitional phase.
Downward pressure has been steadily weakening, which aligns with a series of recent higher daily closes. However, broader momentum has not yet fully flipped to bullish. This suggests that Bitcoin is working to rebuild its strength rather than trending strongly.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heading towards neutrality, confirming that internal pressure has stabilized but has not yet reached buyer dominance.
This type of momentum behavior often precedes an expansion in volatility – especially when paired with a major macroeconomic catalyst like the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The "hawkish cut" narrative increases the tightening backdrop of the macroeconomy.
Markets widely price in a 25 basis point rate cut this week that would lower the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
However, the prevailing theme now is the so-called "hawkish cut," where policymakers ease one more time but signal that further cuts will be much harder to justify.
Former Federal Reserve official Bill English described the potential message as one where the central bank makes a final adjustment and then becomes increasingly comfortable with maintaining steady policy.
The pricing committee remains sharply divided. Some members favor continued easing to protect a declining labor market, while others warn that inflation remains too high to justify further accommodation.
Economists at Wall Street's Goldman Sachs now expect the updated Federal Reserve language to suggest that "the bar for any further cuts will be somewhat higher."
Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting will be the main volatility catalyst. His tone is expected to show internal resistance to further easing and emphasize remaining inflation risks associated with both tariffs and stubborn service inflation. This macroeconomic uncertainty directly feeds into Bitcoin's current technical hesitation.
Resistance remains the immediate test for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is now pressing against a multi-layered resistance zone starting near $93,400 and extending upward toward the mid-$94,000 range.
This is the area where bullish intent needs to clearly assert itself. A sustained daily close above this range is likely to confirm ongoing momentum recovery and open a path toward higher resistance near $96,800.
However, a rejection at this level would reinforce Bitcoin's broader range behavior. And with the Federal Reserve signaling caution rather than accelerating policy, risk assets may struggle to maintain momentum if liquidity expectations wane.
Support zones and downside risks if the macroeconomy shifts to a "risk-off" stance.
On the downside, the $91,900 area serves as an important first line of defense for the market.
That area is being closely watched as a pivotal point between structural recovery and renewed downward pressure. A breakdown here is likely to accelerate selling positions and reveal deeper liquidity zones around $86,200 and $84,700.
These levels represent key demand clusters where long-term participants may become active again.
As long as Bitcoin continues to defend the $91,900 area, the downside remains corrective rather than a break of trend.
Order book signals show a tight battle for control.
Order book data reveals a tightly compressed liquidity environment consistent with pre-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting positioning.
Multiple stacked order walls directly beneath the current price indicate that buyers are actively defending the short-term structure. However, sell order clusters above the market directly show that sellers are equally committed to containing the upward trend.
A compressed liquidity setup indicates that once the Federal Reserve makes a decision and one side gains conviction, prices can move quickly with opposing liquidity being withdrawn.
Bullish and bearish formations ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
From a bullish perspective, waning bearish momentum in Bitcoin and improved internal strength supports a continuation attempt if resistance is decisively broken following the Federal Reserve event. A confirmed breakout would favor long positioning at pullbacks rather than chasing immediate extension.
From a bearish standpoint, a "hawkish Powell" meeting alongside rejection at resistance could trigger a rapid pullback toward the lower support range. A breakdown below nearby support would shift focus decisively to deeper downside areas.
For now, Bitcoin sits in a classic compression phase where the macroeconomic policy message may provide the catalyst for the next decisive trend move.
