🚨 Bitfinex Macro Report: Rate Cuts ≠ Bull Market, Weak Employment + High Debt are Brewing Greater Volatility

Bitfinex's latest macro analysis provides a very clear and realistic judgment:

➡️ The market expects rate cuts, but the environment is not robust; volatility may actually increase.

🧨 1️⃣ The U.S. labor market is weak → Opens the door for rate cuts

Key data has clearly weakened:

• The voluntary resignation rate has dropped to 1.8% (the lowest since 2020)

• Layoff rates are approaching a three-year high

This indicates:

→ Wage pressure is easing

→ Demand is cooling

→ The Fed may accelerate the pace of rate cuts

This is also an important positive source for BTC and risk assets.

💳 2️⃣ But consumers are increasingly relying on "living on credit"

The report points out:

• Total credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion

• Average interest rates exceed 20%

• Household financial pressure continues to worsen

Consumers' "vulnerability" is rising.

This means:

→ Once the economy faces problems again, demand will quickly decline

→ Risk assets will bear greater volatility

📊 3️⃣ Inflation is still not fully under control

CPI year-on-year is still at 2.5%–2.7%,

above the Fed's 2% target.

This complicates the path for rate cuts:

• Too fast → Excessive stimulus

• Too slow → Economic slowdown intensifies

This is the "policy uncertainty" that assets like BTC fear the most.

⚠️ 4️⃣ Implications for traders: Rate cuts ≠ Unilateral Bull Market

Bitfinex summarizes it very directly:

Rate cuts can indeed support asset prices,

but worsening employment + high debt make the market more sensitive to shocks.

In other words:

Favorable policies face a counterbalance from weak fundamentals, resulting in: volatility may be greater, not smaller.

📝 One-sentence summary

Even if there are rate cuts today, the market is not risk-free rising;

Weak employment + surging credit card debt are laying new volatility triggers for BTC and risk assets.