🚨 Tonight's real highlight of the Federal Reserve: Voting shows divergence, rate cut threshold raised, January may be directly "stuck"

According to Jin Shi reports, multiple institutions are giving signals of "dimensionality reduction strikes" for tonight's FOMC meeting.

The core consensus is only one sentence:

➡️ Rate cuts are not off the table, but the threshold is much higher than you think.

🗳️ 1️⃣ Voting shows divergence: Continuous rate cut path may be broken?

There is no longer unanimous agreement within the FOMC to continue cutting rates.

This represents:

• Judgments on inflation & economy are no longer in sync

• The current market's "continuous rate cut expectation" may be significantly overstated

• The greater the divergence → the less likely Powell is to give clear dovish signals

🦅 2️⃣ Barclays: Policy statement may include hawkish wording

Barclays believes that tonight's statement may see key changes:

➡️ Possible pause in rate cuts in January next year

In other words:

The idea of "cutting every time after December" may not happen.

This will directly compress the market's pricing space for future easing.

📉 3️⃣ JPMorgan: Wording will shift to "focus on the magnitude and timing of adjustments"

This phrase is actually a roundabout way of expressing:

➡️ Rate cuts are not the focus, when to cut and how much to cut are the focus

➡️ "Slow down + no commitment to path" → The market will perceive the probability of rate cuts as weakened

This typically brings short-term volatility to the market.

🎙️ 4️⃣ Powell may raise the threshold for rate cuts, hinting that it will be difficult to cut quickly before 2026

Analysts believe Powell may say two things tonight:

1️⃣ Avoid direct hawkish guidance (not to scare the market)

2️⃣ But emphasize that the threshold for rate cuts is very high (especially before 2026)

Translation:

→ No commitment to continue cutting rates

→ Hinting at a possible pause in the short term

→ But not saying "we will raise rates"

A typical "not hawkish on the surface, but effects are hawkish."

📝 One-sentence summary

The dovish signal the market hopes for may not appear tonight;

FOMC internal divergence + hawkish statement + Powell raises threshold

= A strong signal of cooling expectations for future rate cut pace.