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{future}(1000LUNCUSDT)
The Federal Reserve's "big test" at 3 AM! 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, the crypto circle should focus on these two key signals 一起发财
Beijing time, December 11 at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be announced — this is not only the last interest rate decision of the year, but also a crucial moment that directly affects BTC, US stocks, and even global liquidity.
From the current CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the market has already placed an 89.4% bet on a 25 basis point rate cut. If this happens, it would be the third consecutive rate cut this year, and the federal funds rate range would fall to 3.5% to 3.75%. However, we in the crypto circle all know that whether or not to cut rates is no longer the focus; the key point is that this time it's highly likely to be a "hawkish rate cut." After all, the Federal Reserve just ended its balance sheet reduction on December 1, and there is even a possibility of announcing a restart of balance sheet expansion in January next year, buying $40 to $45 billion in short-term government bonds each month. The looseness or tightness of liquidity directly relates to our confidence in holding positions.
The two key points to focus on in this meeting are actually two hidden lines:
One is whether the latest dot plot will cut the number of rate cuts for next year. If it hints at fewer rate cuts next year, the global asset pricing logic may change directly.
The second is whether Powell's press conference will contain harsh words, such as mentioning that the threshold for future rate cuts needs to be raised. If this is said, the short-term market is likely to shake. More interestingly, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are now on the table, and there might be dissenting votes during the voting, or even someone directly advocating for an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut. This kind of dual opposition situation could easily lead to market fluctuations.
After all, for us in the crypto circle, a rate cut does not mean an easy win; hawkish signals are the real thunder — if Powell sets the tone for "tight credit," even if they expand the balance sheet, the short-term may first drop and then rise; but if he softens his stance, liquidity expectations might loosen, and the market could surge. The little pup that Musk has milked can be monitored 【P.u p.pi e.s】.
Do you think this time it’s a solid hawkish rate cut, or will Powell quietly soften his words? Will your positions be adjusted in advance for risk aversion, or will you gamble on the market after the meeting?
#美联储FOMC会议
#加密市场反弹
{future}(1000LUNCUSDT)
The Federal Reserve's "big test" at 3 AM! 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, the crypto circle should focus on these two key signals 一起发财
Beijing time, December 11 at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be announced — this is not only the last interest rate decision of the year, but also a crucial moment that directly affects BTC, US stocks, and even global liquidity.
From the current CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the market has already placed an 89.4% bet on a 25 basis point rate cut. If this happens, it would be the third consecutive rate cut this year, and the federal funds rate range would fall to 3.5% to 3.75%. However, we in the crypto circle all know that whether or not to cut rates is no longer the focus; the key point is that this time it's highly likely to be a "hawkish rate cut." After all, the Federal Reserve just ended its balance sheet reduction on December 1, and there is even a possibility of announcing a restart of balance sheet expansion in January next year, buying $40 to $45 billion in short-term government bonds each month. The looseness or tightness of liquidity directly relates to our confidence in holding positions.
The two key points to focus on in this meeting are actually two hidden lines:
One is whether the latest dot plot will cut the number of rate cuts for next year. If it hints at fewer rate cuts next year, the global asset pricing logic may change directly.
The second is whether Powell's press conference will contain harsh words, such as mentioning that the threshold for future rate cuts needs to be raised. If this is said, the short-term market is likely to shake. More interestingly, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are now on the table, and there might be dissenting votes during the voting, or even someone directly advocating for an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut. This kind of dual opposition situation could easily lead to market fluctuations.
After all, for us in the crypto circle, a rate cut does not mean an easy win; hawkish signals are the real thunder — if Powell sets the tone for "tight credit," even if they expand the balance sheet, the short-term may first drop and then rise; but if he softens his stance, liquidity expectations might loosen, and the market could surge. The little pup that Musk has milked can be monitored 【P.u p.pi e.s】.
Do you think this time it’s a solid hawkish rate cut, or will Powell quietly soften his words? Will your positions be adjusted in advance for risk aversion, or will you gamble on the market after the meeting?
#美联储FOMC会议
#加密市场反弹
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