#KİTE It was adjustment day this Tuesday (09), a more technical movement, still echoing the turmoil of the Bolsonaro family, forcing the spotlight onto 01, Flavio Bolsonaro. As a result, the Ibovespa fell 0.52% to 158,187 points, and the dollar rose 0.26% to R$ 5.438.
The US futures indices are trading higher this Wednesday (10), while investors prepare for the Fed's monetary policy decision. The market bets that the Central Bank will reduce its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, as it did in its meetings in September and October.
Super Wednesday, with meetings of the Copom and the FOMC simultaneously. In the US, the chances of a 0.25 pp interest rate cut are 89% at the CME Group, while in Brazil, the Copom is expected to keep the Selic at 15%. In both cases, the focus is on the announcements, which may signal future decisions by monetary authorities. On the agenda, highlight for the IPCA of November (9am), which may still adjust some bets for January. Regarding the Fed's decision, there is a consensus about a new interest rate cut, which should be reduced to the range between 3.50% and 3.75% per year. Nevertheless, Jerome Powell is expected to remain cautious, especially since he is facing a conflict with President Trump, who is eager to replace him by May. Even so, it doesn’t seem that the delayed data from the shutdown is influencing the decision.
In Brazil, the vote in the Chamber on the dosage project exploded last night, which may remove Flavio Bolsonaro from the race and open space for Tarcísio de Freitas. Bolsonaro's sentence, for example, would drop to 20 years, after which he could spend just two years and a few months in closed regime.
