#加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议
As almost all major assets are in range-bound trading, analysts emphasize that the tone of Jerome Powell's speech, rather than the interest rate cut itself, may determine the next real trend of the market.
In the past few days, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $88,000 and $93,000, with liquidity gradually decreasing as the year-end approaches. Ethereum remains around $3,100, BNB is close to $886, and Solana is around $132. During this wait-and-see period, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has dropped to approximately $3.1 trillion.
ETF fund flows show a rotation to altcoins.
Despite the lackluster price movements, exchange-traded funds reveal a more detailed picture. Bitcoin ETF products recorded outflows of about $600,000 on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted a total net inflow of $740,000.
The Fed's "binary" week before, the market remains stagnant.
Analysts describe market sentiment as a "waiting-for-a-start market." Most traders are on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, and the market generally expects a rate cut in December to be the baseline scenario.
Some experts believe that the rate cut has been fully priced in. However, Powell's policy guidance will be more critical—especially whether the policy in 2026 will continue to be tight or shift to a more accommodative stance.
They believe Bitcoin is likely to consolidate around $91,000 unless Powell surprises the market.
Liquidity evaporating, derivatives traders retreat.
QCP Capital pointed out that the sharp fluctuations over the weekend—BTC rising from $88,000 to $92,000, Ethereum rising from $2,910 to $3,150—highlight how thin liquidity has become as the year-end approaches.
Open interest has significantly decreased:
Bitcoin open interest has dropped more than 44% since October.
Ethereum open interest has dropped more than 50%.
Powell's speech will determine the next movement of Bitcoin.
Analysts unanimously agree that tomorrow's policy guidance will set the tone for the market in the last few weeks of 2025. If more cautious or "hawkish" signals are released, Bitcoin may retreat to the $88,000 area.
If a more accommodative outlook is provided or hints at another rate cut in early 2026, it could push prices up to $93,000–$95,000, and if momentum recovers, there might even be a chance to test $97,000–$106,000. At that time, the dominant strategy will still be to wait and see.
The market is stalemated—the next movement entirely depends on Powell's statements.