Despite the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December being close to 90%, its monetary policy is facing a threefold dilemma:

1. Conflicting Goals: Inflation has rebounded (PCE reached 2.8%), while the job market has significantly slowed down (the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November), making it difficult to balance the two policy objectives.

2. Political Pressure: Trump has repeatedly publicly pressured for faster interest rate cuts and tried to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making independence through personnel changes.

3. AI Variables: The AI investment boom has both driven up the stock market and relied on low interest rates, but it may also push inflation higher and replace human labor. If it is a bubble, lowering interest rates may exacerbate the risks; if it continues, it may worsen structural employment issues.

Under the multiple pressures of inflation, employment, politics, and technological change, the effectiveness and side effects of the Federal Reserve's traditional interest rate cut tools are becoming increasingly difficult to predict and control. $BTC #加密市场反弹