This FOMC is highly likely to be:

Powell will cut rates by 25bp, but the language will be hawkish—a standard "hawkish rate cut."

The rate cut is for you, but it will come with a phrase like "2025 won't be smooth," to temper market sentiment.

What does this mean for the market?

1) US stocks / crypto short-term: likely to see a wave of "buy the expectation, sell the fact."

After the good news lands, a sentiment pullback is normal; especially with a "hawkish rate cut," the market will interpret this as: "The rate cut is for you, but don’t expect to celebrate for too long."

2) But don’t get the direction wrong: as long as inflation doesn’t explode, the Fed will ultimately protect employment.

Expectations of fiscal stimulus + sticky inflation mean Powell must remain tough, and the pace of rate cuts has to be slow,

but the macro direction hasn’t changed.

3) Here comes the key point: what we really need to be wary of is not the Fed, but

→ the Japanese interest rate meeting around the 19th.

This is the potential black swan.

If Japan suddenly signals a more hawkish stance, global carry trade will be forced to close positions in the short term.

This could lead to a quick sell-off of risk assets, but it’s mostly a temporary technical shock.

And this kind of "carry trade liquidation-style sharp drop" is actually one of the most noteworthy entry points in this round of market movement! #加密市场反弹 $BTC