🕒 Core Events

At 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce its last interest rate decision for 2025, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point rate cut.

🔍 Focus Analysis: “Hawkish Rate Cut” Becomes Key Phrase

The core of this meeting is not whether to cut rates, but what kind of future signals the Federal Reserve will release. The consensus expectation is a “hawkish rate cut,” meaning that while cutting rates, the language will strongly imply that this may be the last easing in the short term, setting a higher threshold for further rate cuts in the future.

📈 Four Key Points of the Meeting

· Outlook for 2026 Policy: The “dot plot” reflecting officials' rate predictions will be updated, and the market will interpret the rate cut path for 2026 from it.

· Rare Internal Division: The internal disagreement among decision-makers is at a record high in recent years, and tonight's vote may again see multiple dissenting votes, creating an open struggle between doves and hawks.

· Powell's “Balancing Act”: In the press conference half an hour later, every word from Chairman Powell will be scrutinized. He needs to carefully balance supporting the economy with controlling inflation expectations.

· New Trends in Balance Sheet: Besides interest rates, the Federal Reserve may announce a resumption of bond purchases (as opposed to quantitative easing) to ease market liquidity pressure, which will become another major focus.

💎 Market Impact

The rate cut itself has been fully absorbed by the market. The real engine of the market lies in the Federal Reserve's hints on “when to stop.” If the “hawkish” signals are clear, it may trigger short-term market fluctuations and set the tone for next year's policy direction. #美联储重启降息步伐