$BTC $ETH $ASTER sleepless night! The countdown to the Federal Reserve's decision, the crypto market awaits the storm at 3 AM
$BTC sprinting towards the 100,000 mark, ETH breaking through 4,000 dollars is just an appetizer, the real market test lies in the early hours of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision!
The market generally bets that the Federal Reserve will face a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, but the core of this decision is not about whether to cut or not, but rather the cleverly concealed **'hawkish rate cut'**!
🔥 A historic split has emerged within the Federal Reserve, policy games are heating up:
• Dovish camp: Signals of a weak job market are prominent, it is necessary to continue easing to support the economy
• Hawkish camp: Core inflation still not reaching the 2% target, easing cannot be limitless
Ultimately, the most probable outcome is a combination of 'rate cut + hawkish guidance'—using 25 basis points to soothe the market, while firmly hinting that 'this round of rate cuts may be nearing its end'
📊 Four key focal points directly lock in the direction of the crypto market:
1. The nuances in Powell's wording
Goldman Sachs predicts that his remarks will be extremely cautious, phrases like 'the threshold for future rate cuts has risen significantly' will stir market nerves with every word
2. Internal divisions in the dot plot
The latest interest rate forecast will expose factional alignments: some oppose further rate cuts, some insist on tackling inflation, and some advocate for a 50 basis point large cut, the three-way covert battle will determine policy direction
3. The 'tightrope balance' of economic data
Core PCE is still above target, the job market has shown signs of fatigue, the Federal Reserve is at a crossroads between inflation and employment
4. The invisible easing of the balance sheet
Just paused tapering in October, may now restart bond purchases (non-traditional QE), liquidity trends will sway the crypto market
⚡ The focal point of the market is no longer 'whether to cut rates', but 'when will easing come to an end'! Tonight the Federal Reserve will not only set interest rates but also determine the major direction of funds for next year's crypto market, global capital is poised to act, are you ready?
Tell me your answer in the comments!
