My Altseason Thesis for 2026
I don’t think a real altseason starts until Bitcoin finishes its next major leg and begins ranging near the highs. As long as BTC stays the main trade and narrative, most liquidity remains locked there.
For 2026 I’m watching four major switches:
1️⃣ $BTC flips from trend to range
A strong run into new or retested highs followed by weeks or months of sideways chop.
When BTC cools off, traders start hunting higher beta. That’s when alts wake up.
2️⃣ BTC Dominance breaks down hard
A clear top in BTC.d followed by a sustained downtrend.
This is liquidity moving from BTC → ETH → majors → midcaps → small caps.
3️⃣ Altcoin data goes vertical
Alts outperform BTC across the board.
Spot and perp volume on majors and midcaps surges.
Whole sectors start moving together instead of isolated random pumps.
4️⃣ Macro + liquidity actually support risk
Liquidity expansion.
Rates not fighting risk assets.
When liquidity flows, the tail (alts) finally catches the dog (BTC).
What a real altseason looks like:
Majors move first → then high-quality midcaps → then full chaos in small caps and memes.
Even garbage starts doing 3x to 10x as FOMO hits peak levels.
My view:
Until these four switches flip, it stays a BTC and ETH-led market with selective alt setups, not a full altseason.
