The Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, implementing the rate cut that the markets had anticipated—without providing clear guidance on further easing.

The day's decision was not unanimous, highlighting the uncertainty that has dominated investor sentiment over the past week.

The focus is on guidance, not cuts.

The FOMC noted that job growth has slowed, with higher unemployment observable in the third quarter, and inflation has risen since the beginning of 2025.

Decision-makers noted that the risk of a decline in employment has increased, but they did not commit to a sustained rate-cutting cycle. The current stance emphasizes that future decisions will be data-driven.

The committee reiterated that it would assess 'upcoming data, changing outlooks, and risk balance' before any potential further changes.

Cryptocurrency traders interpret this stance as neutral or cautiously positive. Without a clear reference to future actions, January and March are now crucial points in terms of expectations for rate cuts.

The moves align with discussions held prior to the meeting: analysts warned of a potential hawkish rate cut — relief now, but without a clear easing in the future.

The lack of forward-looking language suggests that the Fed wants to maintain flexibility. Inflation is described as being 'somewhat elevated', and uncertainty related to growth remains high.

The divided voting reveals internal tensions

The voting outcome shows that the committee is divided. Stephen Miran would have preferred a larger, 50 basis point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid supported maintaining the current stance.

This divided voting outcome reflects future uncertainty. Labor markets are softening, inflation is no longer declining as steadily, and views on the easing needed by the economy differ increasingly.

In particular, the formation of three different stances is a significant phenomenon. This indicates that there is no consensus on economic oversupply and the direction of monetary policy — and it is unclear whether easing should happen more quickly or if a pause should be maintained. Markets interpret this to mean that the cycle is no longer clearly on the easing side.

A balance sheet item worth paying attention to

The Fed also announced its readiness to purchase short-term government bonds if necessary to ensure the adequacy of reserves — a subtle but significant action in terms of liquidity. This could stabilize markets if volatility increases in 2026.

Today's action precisely matched market expectations, but without a clear roadmap into the future. The tone is measured, cautious, and data-dependent — not really on the easing side.

As guidance comes to the forefront, attention now shifts to January. Rate cuts were the headline, but the real reaction will only be seen in the future.