The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. The market expected this, but the bank gave no clear signs of further cuts.

Today's decision was not unanimous, which increases the uncertainty that has existed among investors during the week.

Guidance is in focus in the market, not the cut

The FOMC notes that employment is growing more slowly. Unemployment has risen during the third quarter, and inflation has increased since the beginning of 2025.

Politicians see more risks to jobs, but do not promise more or faster interest rate cuts. Instead, they want to let upcoming statistics guide future decisions.

The committee reiterates that they will evaluate 'new data, changed forecasts, and risk balance' before new decisions are made.

Cryptocurrency traders see this as neutral to cautious. Without clear promises, January and March are important months for new expectations regarding interest rates.

This fits with the discussion before the meeting. Many believed that a hawkish cut could come: a relief now, but without signals of further cuts.

The Fed avoids promising anything for the future. They want flexibility, especially when inflation is 'still elevated' and growth is uncertain.

Rarely divided vote shows internal concern

The voting shows that the committee is divided. Stephen Miran wanted to see a reduction of 50 basis points. Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid did not want to change the interest rate at all.

Three different opinions indicate uncertainty ahead. Fewer jobs, inflation that is no longer declining evenly, and differing views on how much the economy needs to lower are dividing the committee.

This division is unusual. It shows that members have differing opinions on how much the economy is losing momentum — and whether it is time to cut faster or wait. The market interprets this as the cycle no longer being clearly dovish.

Important note in the balance sheet

The Fed also announces that they are ready to buy short-term government bonds to ensure sufficient reserves. This is important for liquidity and can dampen fluctuations if the market becomes anxious during 2026.

Today's decision was as the market expected, but without guidance for the future. The Fed is cautious and lets statistics determine, not clear promises of further cuts.

The focus is now on January. This interest rate cut made headlines, but it is the future that will determine the stock market's direction.