In a highly anticipated meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its first real step indicating a change in direction after keeping monetary policy tight for a long time. Although the reduction was limited, the message was clearer than ever:
👉 The next path is easing… but cautiously, and under complete control of the data.
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🏦 First: What did the Fed say in its official statement?
The Fed's statement carried a mix of reassurance and concern:
✔️ 1. The economy is expanding but with less momentum
Economic activity is still growing, but its pace has started to slow down, and pressures on the labor market are easing.
✔️ 2. The labor market is cooling and unemployment is gradually rising
The unemployment rate has edged up slightly, confirming that the labor market is no longer as tight as it was — a critical factor for the Fed.
✔️ 3. Inflation is still above target
Despite its significant drop over the past two years, it has not yet returned to the 2% level targeted by the Fed.
✔️ 4. Interest rate cut of 25 basis points
New range: 3.5% – 3.75%
The fundamental reason: Labor market risks have become higher than inflation risks.
✔️ 5. The next interest rate path is uncertain
Any future cut "depends entirely on upcoming data", especially unemployment, inflation reports, and consumption measures.
✔️ 6. Buying back short-term bonds
Step targeting:
• Injecting liquidity
• Maintaining market stability
• Prevent any short-term funding shortages
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📌 Federal Officials' Expectations – The New Roadmap
"The dots" (Dot Plot) of Federal officials revealed the biggest shift:
🔥 End of 2025: Interest at 3.6%
🔥 2026: Around 3.4%
🔥 2027 – 2028: Close to 3.1%
🔥 Long term: 3.0%
In other words:
➡️ The Fed sees that the economy can withstand higher interest rates than in the past decade, even after the easing cycle.
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✂️ The expected pace of cuts
According to official forecasts:
One cut (25 basis points) in 2026
One cut (25 basis points) in 2027
Easing is very slow… but it continues.
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📊 US Economic Forecasts
The Fed expects a relatively strong economy despite the slowdown:
• Unemployment in 2026: 4.4%
Slight increase but does not indicate a recession.
• Inflation in 2026: 2.4%
This means inflation will remain above 2% for a while, which is why the Fed will not rush cuts.
• Growth: 2.3%
Solid growth — far from recession scenarios.
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🎯 What do all these signals mean for the market?
🔵 1. Stocks: Gradual rise
Slow easing = Strong support for technology and growth stocks in the medium term.
🔵 2. Digital currencies: An ideal environment
Every interest rate cut means:
• Higher liquidity
• Dollar weakness
• Institutional inflows
• Expansion of ETF funds
This creates a wave of liquidity that may last until 2027.
🔵 3. Bonds: Lower yields → Higher prices
Return of massive inflows to bond funds.
🔵 4. Dollar: Gradual weakness
Especially if inflation registers a sudden slowdown in upcoming reports.
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🧠 Final message:
The Fed states clearly:
> We will not push the economy too hard… but we will not allow inflation to return.
In other words:
✳️ Calculated easing
✳️ Slow interest rate declines
✳️ Liquidity improving gradually
✳️ Markets preparing for a long-term upward wave if the data comes out positive
