$pippin has shown recent scenarios of high volatility and concentrated accumulation, reflecting market dynamics dominated by large players. In the last week, the price went from 0.08 USD to 0.24 USD and, more recently, reached 0.39 USD, evidencing the presence of significant buying pressure and confrontations between different levels of liquidity.
Recent news about whales indicates strategic accumulation movements. A group of approximately 50 coordinated wallets concentrates around 73% of the total circulating supply of PIPPIN. Recent movements include the acquisition of 16.35 million tokens by a single wallet, equivalent to around 3.3 million USD, demonstrating that there is still absorption capacity, albeit limited, in this phase of the rally. These behaviors generate restrictions on available liquidity for the rest of the market, amplifying price sensitivity to any significant sell order from these entities.
The concentration of tokens implies several consequences in the market structure: first, the effective circulating supply is reduced, which can sustain higher prices during accumulation periods; second, the margin for new purchases by large holders is limited, decreasing the potential for further increases without external capital inflow; third, any selling movement by these concentrated wallets can trigger sharp price declines due to the high supply exposure in few hands.
In conclusion, PIPPIN is at a critical point: the current rally has been primarily fueled by whale accumulation and limited market liquidity. Although additional upward movements may occur, the concentrated structure creates an intrinsic risk of collapse due to token releases by these large players. Traders must evaluate both buying pressure and supply vulnerability before taking significant positions. This analysis underscores the importance of considering supply concentration as a central variable to understand price dynamics and the sustainability of the rally.
Pump potential of PIPPIN
Base data:
Total circulating supply: ~1.000 million PIPPIN.
Concentration of 50 coordinated wallets: ~73% of the supply (~730 million tokens).
Recent price: ~0.35 US$.
Last relevant pump: from ~0.32-0.33 US$ to 0.39 US$ in a single candle/pillar.
Available spot volume / liquid supply outside these wallets: ~27% (~270 million tokens).
Additional buying capacity of the whales
If they already hold 73% of the supply, the margin for additional accumulation is limited, and depends on how much liquid supply remains outside of them.
An estimate:
Liquid supply available: ~270 million tokens.
To generate a new pump, the group of whales could attempt to absorb a significant percentage of that liquid supply, but not all, because buying everything would cause the price to rise drastically and force an immediate sale.
Assuming they absorb 50-60% of the remaining liquid supply (~135-160 million tokens), we can project a similar upward movement to the last pump.
Pump potential estimation
Last pump: 0.32 → 0.39 US$ ≈ +22%.
Additional buying capacity: ~50-60% of the remaining liquid supply (~135-160 million tokens).
Considering the limited liquidity and the concentration structure, an approximate calculation of purchase impact on price indicates:
Probable pump: from the current price 0.35 US$ to a range 0.42-0.45 US$, before significant selling pressure begins to be observed.
Extreme pump (if more external capital enters and selling pressure is delayed): could reach 0.48-0.50 US$, but the risk of immediate reversal increases significantly.
Strategic considerations
Once this pump is reached, the likelihood of selling by the whales is high, given that they already have almost all the supply concentration.
The range 0.42-0.45 US$ would be a point of maximum tension before a probable dump.
Minimum leverage or capital allocated to 'resistance' may activate just in this range to take advantage of the momentum, leaving the rest of the capital out until a breakout or rejection is confirmed.
Retail's share of the remaining liquid supply and how it affects the whales' ability to generate a pump.
Base data:
Total supply: ~1.000 million PIPPIN
Supply in the hands of 50 coordinated wallets: ~73% (~730 million)
Remaining liquid supply (possible for accumulation and retail): ~27% (~270 million)
Retail buying capacity
Retail normally does not control large percentages of the available supply. We can make an estimate based on historical behavior and retail participation patterns:
Average retail participation in tokens with hype: 5-15% of the liquid supply in an initial rally (dispersed purchases on spot exchanges).
Maximum participation in case of very intense FOMO: 20-25% of the remaining liquid supply.
Applying this to the remaining liquid supply of PIPPIN:
5-15% of 270 million → 13.5-40.5 million tokens
20-25% of 270 million → 54-67.5 million tokens (extreme retail hype scenario)
Impact on the whales' tactics
If retail buys 13.5-40.5 million tokens, it absorbs part of the liquid supply, but leaves enough margin for the whales to continue executing a coordinated pump (absorbing the rest: 230-240 million).
If retail reaches 54-67.5 million tokens, it starts to compete with the whales for the remaining supply. This can:
Slightly raise the price before the whales finish their accumulation.
Reduce the 'surprise effect' of the coordinated purchase, as part of the supply is already in retail hands.
Therefore, as long as retail participation does not exceed ~20-25% of the liquid supply, the whales can execute their pump without losing control over the strategy, although the price could rebound earlier due to retail pressure.
Conclusion
Liquid supply available: 270 million
Potential retail percentage: 5-25%
Retail tokens approx.: 13.5-67.5 million
Impact:
Retail <15%: minimum effect, pump intact.
Retail 15-25%: partially competes, can generate a partial rebound before the pump.
Retail >25%: starts to significantly interfere with the whales' ability to execute their accumulation and pump strategy.
