Onchain data cannot read minds, but it can show where whale behavior aligns with clear incentives and pressures. Several explanations are consistent with the evidence and analyst research.$BTC
Profit-taking into deep liquidity
Glassnode and others have shown that long-term holder supply often peaks into or just before new all-time highs, then enters a distribution phase. At those points, realized capitalization and market value to realized value (MVRV), concepts formalized by Coin Metrics and popularized by Nic Carter and colleagues, indicate that long-term holders sit on very large unrealized gains.
For early adopters who have held for seven to 10 years, even modest sales would represent significant historical gains for long-term holders without exiting Bitcoin entirely.#TrumpTariffs #CPIWatch
Portfolio and venue rebalancing
Some dormant coins have been traced into institutional custody, multisig setups or ETF custodians, which marks a move from personal cold storage to regulated vehicles. Cross-chain flow trackers have also spotted old BTC moving alongside new positions in ETH or other major assets, which suggests internal reallocations rather than full exits.
Legal and administrative triggers
Tax events, lawsuits, inheritance planning and corporate restructurings can all force coins that have been untouched for a decade into motion. It is not uncommon for whale moves to coincide with public legal disputes or regulatory actions, which shows how court orders and compliance obligations can wake sleeping balances even when the investment thesis is unchanged.#BinanceAlphaAlert
Age-related structural effects
As Unchained Capital’s “Geology of Lost Coins” framework notes, each cycle leaves a thicker layer of long, unmoved coins. Some are truly lost, while others belong to individuals, companies or estates.
Over time, more of those holders reach moments of rebalancing, succession or custody upgrades, which naturally produces more awakenings per year even if they still represent a small share of total supply.#BinanceBlockchainWeek
Remember, none of these factors excludes the others, and none can be proven from the ledger alone. Onchain data can show which coins moved and where they went, but it cannot reveal why the transaction happened.
Did you know? As of mid-2025, credible onchain estimates suggest 2.3 million-3.7 million BTC, up to about 18% of the total supply, is irretrievably lost due to forgotten keys, destroyed wallets or otherwise inaccessible addresses.@Hannah_汉娜 @DJ史珍香 @D E X O R A @陌上花开Hawk @DXC Foundation
