🚨🔥【Market expectations are turning cautious, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the first half of tomorrow is low】
🔍According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch", which is widely followed by the global financial market, the market shows a high level of caution and patience regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. The data indicates that for January 2026, nearly a year from now, the market believes the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is only 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 77.9%.
⏰️Zooming in on the next few months, market expectations are also leaning towards conservatism. For the monetary policy until March next year, the market estimates the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut to be 40.7%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged at 52%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at only 7.4%.
🧣These probability figures clearly reflect that after the Federal Reserve has just completed a new round of interest rate cuts, the financial market has not linearly extrapolated its easing pace. On the contrary, traders generally expect that monetary policy will enter a period of "wait and see". This expectation may be closely related to the Federal Reserve's recent statements emphasizing "economic outlook uncertainty" and "inflation still at a high level". The market is digesting a possibility: that the subsequent actions of the Federal Reserve will rely more on the evolution of data, especially whether inflation is indeed under control and whether the risks of a declining job market will further materialize, rather than presetting an aggressive rate cut trajectory. This marks a shift in market sentiment from earlier enthusiasm for easing to more conditional cautious expectations #美联储降息+日本加息
