Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points: dovish with a hint of hawkishness, mixed market reactions

1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the December dot plot shows only one rate cut anticipated in 2026, far below market expectations, with 7 out of 19 committee members opposing this rate cut. Trump complained, "too little of a cut."

2. This month, $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury purchases were initiated to expand the balance sheet (non-QE), aimed at directly alleviating overnight loan market pressures, with an unexpected influx of liquidity driving a short-term rebound in U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market.

3. Powell emphasized that current interest rates are at the high end of the neutral range, with no preset policy path; meanwhile, the Trump family supports a mining company entering the top 22 in BTC reserves, and the CFTC clarified that Bitcoin can be used as collateral for derivatives, with institutions covertly positioning themselves in the crypto market.

4. It remains uncertain whether the short-term rebound can be sustained, and caution is needed regarding the risk of fully priced positives, as the market speculates on whether it’s "dovish with a hint of hawkishness" or "clear hawkishness with dovish undertones."

5. Technical pattern analysis; if the second surge does not break the 94,500 range, pay attention to the 90,500 level on a pullback, with the mid-term trend focusing on the 3-day MACD formation, and only if confirmed can there be a breakthrough at 95,000; if there’s a leak, it could explore 86,500!