GM Global Financial Morning News | 2025-12-11: Fed Rate Cut Implemented, Liquidity Feast Begins
Good Morning, Market Pulse | 2025.12.11
Last night, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bp as expected (federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%), marking the third consecutive action, but internal dissent was rare (3 votes against, the most in 30 years). Powell's dovish stance confirmed a 'soft landing', with the dot plot for 2026 revised down to a midpoint of 3.25%-3.5% (room for a further 100bp cut), but he avoided discussing the January path - 'data dependent'.
Positive: End of QT + 6.6 trillion liquidity opens the floodgates, strengthening the easing narrative; Black Swan: Tariff worries push inflation expectations up by 0.3pp. Global funds are flowing out of defensive positions, with a net inflow into ETFs of 176 million USD, and the US Nasdaq rebounded by 0.71%.
Top 5 Global Financial Positives
Fed Easing Confirmed: Rate cut + dot plot revision, igniting risk appetite with expectations for more cuts in 2026, US Treasury yields fall, and tech stocks lead the US market.
ETF Capital Reversal: Q3 saw a net inflow of 37.7 billion (the second highest in history), Vanguard opens BTC/ETH products, and institutional bottom fishing accelerates.
CFTC/OCC Green Light: BTC/ETH/USDC first to receive derivatives collateral pilot, unlocking a trillion in liquidity.
China-US Chip Thaw: Tariffs suspended until 2026, supply chain costs down 10%, global growth rebounds by 0.2pp.
Emerging Markets Unlocked: IMF approves 1.2 billion rescue for Pakistan, African crypto adoption up 200%, USDT global merchant coverage skyrockets.
Mainstream Currency Prices (vs USD, real-time)
EUR: 1.0825 (+0.3%), ECB rate cut expectations provide support.
JPY: 150.20 (+0.5%), BOJ rate hike probability at 50% squeezes arbitrage.
GBP: 1.2720 (+0.2%), BoE is moderate.
CAD: 1.3850 (-0.1%), supported by oil prices.
AUD: 1.5120 (+0.4%), commodity rebound.
Capital Inflow/Outflow Overview
ETF: Q3 net inflow of 37.7 billion (double the historical average), crypto ETF reversal +176 million (led by BlackRock).
Mutual Funds: Outflow of 48.1 billion in the first nine months, shifting to low-fee ETFs.
Global: M2 growth rate at 3.2%, silver price at 58.5 (+80% year-on-year), mutual fund outflow of 2.3 billion but crypto/commodity rotation +15%.
In Summary: Fed liquidity arrives, risk boat rises - BTC holds 90K with a 65% chance of rebounding, ETH probing 3.2K. Positioning: core 70%, cash 30%. Survived the tariff black swan, Christmas dividends are yours. Good morning, see you in the market!
$pippin
