📅 Release Date: December 11, 2025 | Binance Square: Qingfeng BTC Exclusive Insights
Bitcoin stands at a high of $92,000, and Ethereum has recovered the $3,100 mark. Behind the seemingly calm K-line, the global financial market is experiencing a rare 'sector collision'.
As a veteran who has been navigating from the stock market to the crypto world for 20 years, I must remind everyone: the final battle of 2025 is not about simple charts anymore, but about the 'divergence of monetary policies' from the two major central banks globally.
On one side is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) expectation of interest rate cuts, and on the other is the looming tightening from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). What does this torn macro environment mean for the crypto assets we hold?
🌏 1. Macro Game: Liquidity 'injection' and 'drain'
Many new investors only focus on the Federal Reserve's signals while ignoring Asia's 'invisible giant whale' - the Bank of Japan.
1. Dangerous signal: Reversal of yen carry trade
We have already witnessed this once in August 2024: the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike led to a global trillion-level 'yen carry trade' unwinding, causing a crash in Bitcoin.
Currently, the Bank of Japan is frequently making hawkish statements, intending to rescue the yen exchange rate through interest rate hikes. This means that the world's cheapest borrowing funds are becoming more expensive. Theoretically, this serves as a 'drain' for risk assets.
2. Why is Bitcoin still rising?
Because 'the Federal Reserve's bucket is bigger than the Bank of Japan's cup.'
Although Japan is draining liquidity, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week is as high as 94%. The scale of dollar liquidity release far exceeds the impact from yen tightening. The market is trading on the logic of 'increased net liquidity.'
Veteran judgment: In the short term (especially around the Japanese monetary policy meeting), yen appreciation will bring significant volatility (spikes); however, in the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve's easing cycle will dominate the overall trend of Bitcoin.
🏛️ 2. Policy Alpha: The SEC's 'historic shift' is the biggest moat
If the macro environment is 'mixed blessings', then the policy side is 'clear skies.'
1. From 'Enforcement' to 'Exemption'
The 'innovation exemption' proposed by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is not just a slogan; it is the cornerstone of the restructuring of valuation models in the crypto industry.
In the past, institutions dared not touch DeFi for fear of being classified as securities. Now, with a clear compliance path, what we see is a 'green light' for institutional funds to enter.
2. Who are the real beneficiaries?
BTC is a store of value, enjoying macro dividends; but DeFi (decentralized finance) and RWA (real-world assets) are the biggest winners of this policy shift.
When Uniswap or Aave can operate compliantly like Nasdaq-listed companies, their valuations will no longer be limited by TVL, but will benchmark against traditional financial institutions.
📊 3. On-chain Truth: What are the whales doing?
Setting aside the macro narrative, data does not lie.
New highs in stablecoin market capitalization: Despite market concerns over Japan's interest rate hikes, the total market capitalization of on-chain stablecoins (USDT/USDC/USDD) continues to rise. This is the most direct evidence of ample **'backup ammunition.'**
Exchange balances depleted: The stock of BTC in exchanges has dropped to a near-term low. This means: seller liquidity is extremely scarce. Once the demand side (ETF or institutions) exerts even a little force, it will trigger a dramatic 'supply shock' rise.
🎯 4. 2025 Year-End Strategy: Barbell Configuration
In the face of the potential volatility of 'yen interest rate hikes' and the certainty of 'U.S. interest rate cuts', I suggest adopting a **'barbell strategy':**
Stable position (60%): BTC + stablecoin wealth management
Hold spot BTC as ballast. At the same time, utilize the current dollar yield spread that has not completely collapsed to allocate stablecoins like USDD 2.0which have high-yield activities recently (like Binance Yield+), to earn over 20% annualized returns while waiting for opportunities and maintaining ample cash flow.Offensive position (40%): DeFi leaders + strong meme stocks
Focus on positioning in DeFi blue chips (Uni/Aave/Maker system) that benefit from the SEC's new policies. A small portion of the position can participate in the best on-chain liquidity meme, as an amplifier to capture market sentiment.
💡 Conclusion
Don't lose your chips because of the 'interest rate noise' from the Bank of Japan. Throughout financial history, **'technological innovation' combined with 'liquidity easing'** often creates the craziest bull markets.
The current volatility is just to shake off those speculators who don't understand the macro trend. Hold onto your Bitcoin, fasten your seatbelt, we are navigating through the storm towards new highs.
(Risk warning: This article represents personal views and does not constitute investment advice. Pay attention to exchange rate risk and respect the market.)
