Powell's speech on December 10: Dovish but with cautious balance, not extremely dovish
1. Dovish signals (clear)
1. Continuous third rate cut: a cumulative 75 basis points this year, confirming the continuation of the easing cycle
2. Employment risk priority: repeatedly emphasized the weakening labor market, overstated employment growth, and the unemployment rate may rise by another 0.1-0.2 percentage points
3. Exclusion of rate hike expectations: clearly stated "no one would consider rate hikes as a basic expectation", the divergence is between "maintaining or cutting rates"
4. Neutral interest rate positioning: stated that currently at the "upper end of the neutral range", leaving room for future adjustments
5. Restart short-term bond purchases: announced the resumption of short-term bond purchases to provide additional liquidity support
6. Data dependency + no preset path: emphasized decision-making at successive meetings, with no fixed policy path
2. Hawkish signals (present but mild)
1. 3 votes against: 2 preferred to maintain, 1 called for a larger cut (50 basis points), showing internal divergence
2. Inflation risk still raised: acknowledged upward inflation risk, not fully relaxing vigilance
3. 2026 dot plot leaning hawkish: 10 officials (52.6%) advocate "no cuts + rate hikes", only a few support continued rate cuts
4. Raise threshold for future rate cuts: emphasized "prudent assessment", need to see clear data support
3. Personal judgment
- Overall dovish: the core logic is that the risk of employment decline > the risk of inflation rise, continuing easing in action, excluding rate hikes in language, consistent with dovish orientation
- Not extremely dovish: retains focus on inflation, did not commit to continuous rate cuts, reflecting "balanced risk management" rather than "unconditional easing"
- Market reaction verification: US stocks and gold rose, the dollar weakened, showing investors interpreted it as a dovish signal
Conclusion: This is a cautious dovish rate cut, aimed at hedging employment risks while avoiding excessive easing that exacerbates inflation, retaining flexibility for policy adjustments. $ETH
