Tonight, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but what truly affects market sentiment is Powell's ambiguous attitude—he neither clearly stated that there will be a large-scale monetary easing nor fully ignited the market's risk appetite, leaving all judgments to 'future data'.

Ultimately, what the market fears most is not direct bad news, but the uncertainty that leaves people confused.

The current situation can be summarized in one sentence: money hasn't really loosened, but risk assets have already inflated expectations to the sky.

Many people think that 'a rate cut is a good thing', but historical experience shows otherwise: when a rate cut happens at the beginning of a bear market, it's often not to save the market, but to acknowledge that there are economic problems.

Why do I still think the market will fall in the medium to short term? There are three reasons:

First, there hasn't really been a policy easing.

Powell has been saying 'we will look at the data before deciding the next steps', which indicates that inflation and the economy have not reached a point where extensive monetary easing is possible. This round of rate cuts feels more like a test rather than a full shift to easing.

Second, the market has already priced in expectations.

Bitcoin's rebound from the lows is not because of improved fundamentals, but because funds are betting that 'the rate cut cycle has begun'. Now that the rate cut has been implemented and there hasn't been an unexpected large-scale easing, expectations will naturally begin to cool down.

Third, the market structure resembles the beginning of a bear market, not a bull market pullback.

The current market performance is: during rises, there is no volume; during increases, volume cannot be released; during declines, the volume is large, emotions are polarized, and funds prefer short-term speculation.

Regarding the upcoming market, my view is:

Short-term sentiment may still rebound, but it won't rise much; the real risk lies in the data for the coming weeks.

Bitcoin is likely to oscillate at high levels before gradually weakening, and market sentiment will also turn cold again.

A prudent strategy can be summarized in one sentence: don’t rush to catch the bottom, and don’t be fooled by rebounds into going all in.

Now is the time to protect funds, don’t think about making big money.

The real opportunity will appear when no one is shouting about 'catching the bottom' anymore.

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