Frequent good news causes Bitcoin to drop
With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut wind blowing, last night the US stock market and the crypto circle rose together, with Bitcoin surging from $90,000 to $94,000, only to be slapped back down to $92,000 at the peak, the high selling pressure directly tells you: “Don’t think you can fly to the sky all at once.” The regulators are indeed crazily sending good news: the US OCC issued a document 1188, directly nodding to allow banks to engage in ‘no inventory risk’ crypto matchmaking business; the SEC Chairman Gary Gensler even stated that next year they will accelerate token classification, Project Crypto, and innovation exemptions, a complete operation much friendlier than the previous administration. It was thought that BTC would take off, but in the end, it played out the old drama of “good news pushing high, liquidation landing.” Before the FOMC results came out, the funding sentiment was still one sentence: if you can lie down, don’t rush.
Institutional retreat stablecoin frenzy
As the FOMC meeting in the month approaches, institutions are increasingly adopting a stance of 'brother, I'm not taking risks for now.' On-chain data clearly shows: Bitcoin is fleeing to exchanges, while USDT and USDC are piling up. Hedge funds are directly employing classic escape moves, first stuffing money into stablecoins before deciding on the next step. Funding rates are also starting to replay the old narrative from August to October 2025: before the meeting, bulls desperately leverage to push rates to the ceiling, and as soon as the meeting ends, they collectively hit the brakes, with prices following suit, perfectly replicating the 'party before the meeting, crash after.' Currently, the behavior of the entire market is almost a one-to-one copy: CME positions are not increasing, whales are not buying, but stablecoins are flowing in wildly, clearly signaling: 'Bro, I'm not going all in today; I'm here to avoid risks.' So whether this FOMC will lower interest rates is not the focus; the key is that volatility will certainly be high. At this point, it’s better to prioritize survival rather than chasing rebounds; if you don't make money, you can always try again, but if you lose your life, that's it.
Bitcoin is still in the bottom-building phase
Bitcoin's current 30-day profit and loss ratio looks like a 'snake crawling on the ground,' staying extremely low without any sign of upward movement. To put it bluntly: don't expect a reversal; the market is still grinding your mindset at the bottom. In previous true rebound cycles, the blue profit zone would always show a standard U-shaped upward curve, like an engine warming up and preparing for takeoff; but what about this round? The engine hasn’t even made a starting sound, as if it has fallen asleep ahead of time. But don’t panic; thinking this is 'about to collapse' is too dramatic. There’s no panic selling evident on-chain; those who needed to cut losses have already done so. It now feels more like the market is slowly simmering, trading time for structure. The most heartbreaking part is that the time spent in a sideways bottom will likely outlast most people's patience; you’ll get tired of waiting, but it hasn't even thought about moving. The only truly critical thing is: when does the 30-day moving average start to turn upwards? That moment is the ignition key for recovery; until it curves upwards, everything is considered bottom-building, not a reversal. The traditional skill in the crypto circle is like this: the more boring and quiet it is, the easier it is for long-term funds to quietly ambush. So this 'ground-hugging flight period' may be the dullest bottom, but also the most valuable one.
