According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot, the expectation for the first rate cut in 2026 has shifted to June, and there are only two expected rate cuts in 2026. This has silenced those who anticipated a massive bull market in Bitcoin due to significant monetary easing in 2026. The next good news for the cryptocurrency market should be Powell's departure in May 2026, followed by the emergence of the professional money printer designated by Trump. That should mark the climax of the next wave of market activity. Therefore, I believe there will be a rebound in altcoins in the first quarter of 2026 based on this logic.

The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut was completely expected.
Summary of Powell's speech:
1. This round of rate cuts is over; the next step will be to take a break, similar to the three rate cuts at the end of 2024.
2. The entire rate cut cycle is not over; at least no one is thinking about whether to raise rates.
3. If we look at non-farm payrolls, the real data is about -20,000 per month; non-farm payrolls do not truly reflect reality due to statistical and modeling reasons.
4. Buying short-term bonds is to ensure sufficient liquidity, thereby ensuring interest rates.
The above is objective information.

Subjective feeling: Not too hawkish, more dovish than I expected. Mainly, the initial purchase of short-term bonds is a relatively dovish action. It also basically confirms that the likelihood of further rate cuts during his term is quite low. The market has already set expectations for June next year, with Hassert replacing Powell; the number of rate cuts in the second half of next year will increase.

This also means that in the medium to short term, no significant direction has been given, and whether short-term liquidity can enter the market is uncertain; the market conditions over the next 2-3 months are expected to be quite challenging.