#美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析
1️⃣ Interest rate cuts ≠ immediate money printing
In December, the Federal Reserve will cut by 25bp again, but Powell's statement 'this is just a precautionary adjustment, further actions depend on data' directly kept the market in place—what the market originally fantasized about 'continuous rate cuts + QE' has fallen through, and expectations for dollar liquidity have instead marginally tightened.
2️⃣ The first wave of liquidity bypassed crypto
Cheap money first goes to 3.5% money market funds and investment-grade bonds, not the 60% volatile Bitcoin. In institutional risk control terms, 'just cut interest rates = macro remains weak' often means reducing leverage, not rushing into altcoins.
3️⃣ On-chain data: BTC is stuck in the 'vulnerable zone'
Glassnode monitoring shows that the short-term holder cost line is $102k, the real market average price is $81k, and the current price is $92k, which is exactly in limbo—lacking incremental funds upwards and triggering stop losses downwards at any time; realized losses have soared to an average of $555 million per day, the highest since FTX.
4️⃣ Sentiment: Alt-Season index 61, not yet at 'boiling point'
The Alt-Season index needs to be ≥75 to be considered altcoin season; currently at 61, it's just the 'preheating' stage; past two cycles show that true broad increases often appear 3-6 months after interest rate cut expectations are 'fully priced in', not immediately after the first cut.
5️⃣ Summary:
Interest rate cuts provide an 'entry ticket', not an 'engine'.
Macroeconomic variables still exist, regulation shows no signs of loosening, and in-market leverage has already been cleaned up in advance—if the crypto market wants to accelerate, it first needs to stop the bleeding of on-chain losses and ensure that off-market funds confirm 'it's really safe' before bringing in cheap dollars.
Before this, patiently stockpiling bullets is more cost-effective than blindly going all in. Musk's 🐶p🔥u🔥p🔥p🔥i🔥e🔥s➕puppy chat
(Those who like and comment are all luxury cars, beautiful women, and seaside villas; what do you think of this interest rate cut?)$BTC $ETH $DOGE
