Zhuoyuan 12.11 Gold Morning Review

Greed and fear are cast aside, rationally responding to the market, with stability as the priority. A calm mind leads to steady hands; follow the trend, both gains and losses are part of the learning process.

Overnight, the Federal Reserve's new round of interest rate decisions landed as expected, with a 25 basis point cut in line with market expectations. However, concerns about the current job market and inflation were also expressed, emphasizing that tariffs' impact on inflation is one-time. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with this rate cut, believing it could have been more aggressive. Thus, the overall rate cut was not as hawkish as the market had anticipated. Ultimately, the market showed a weakening U.S. dollar index, allowing gold to be supported and rise. Reviewing last night's trends, before the data was released, gold maintained a narrow range oscillation between 4190 and 4205. After the data was released, it first quickly surged to around 4219, then swiftly dropped to around 4181, and then rose again, peaking at 4238 before retreating to around 4220 and stabilizing. In the early session, it rose again and is currently around 4245, with 4220 being a key watershed for the day. The long position around 4180 yesterday has perfectly played out.

In terms of crude oil, the Federal Reserve's rate cut provided some support to crude oil, while the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil ships also provided some speculation in crude oil, but the supply-demand conflict has not seen actual improvement. Technically, the daily trend continues to maintain a narrow range at low levels. On the four-hour level, the short-term moving averages are beginning to gradually diverge upwards, and the K-line is slowly starting to stand above. For the day, the focus remains on low long positions.

Long positions in gold around 4220-4225, with a target of 4250-4280. If it cannot stabilize, consider a light short position.

Long positions in crude oil around 58.3-58.4, with a target of 59.4-59.5. If it cannot stabilize, consider a light short position.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis. Investment carries risks, and everything is subject to actual trading $PIPE #美联储降息