Interest rate cut implemented, but the crypto world is left hanging by Powell

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected by the market, but what truly dictates the ups and downs in the crypto world is Powell's remarks at the press conference: he didn't say there would be a flood of money, didn't ignite market enthusiasm, and only left behind a statement to look at subsequent data, dragging everyone into a guessing game.

What people in the crypto world fear the most is not a clear bearish signal, but this kind of Schrödinger's easing; money hasn't really become easier to earn, but risk assets like BTC have already fully realized the benefits of the rate cut, and all expectations have been exhausted.

Don't keep believing that a rate cut = easy money! History has long laid out this pattern: a rate cut at the very beginning of a bear market is not a market rescue, it's the Federal Reserve admitting that the economy is somewhat anxious. Why am I so certain that it will drop in the short to medium term? Three solid logics explain it.

Policy is a test, not a flood: Powell repeatedly mentioned looking at data to set direction, indicating that inflation and the economy are not in such a dire situation that they need to open the floodgates. This rate cut can at most be seen as a way to probe the waters, don't overthink it.

Expectations have already been speculated upon: BTC's rebound from a low is not because the market has improved, but relies entirely on the sentiment betting on the arrival of the rate cut cycle. Now that the rate cut is implemented, Powell didn't provide sweet rewards, and this momentum naturally deflates. This is the initial rebound of a bear market, not a correction in a bull market: the current market looks too familiar, with low trading volume during rises and a mass exodus during drops, all driven by short-term speculation. This is exactly the same as when the bear markets in 2018 and 2022 just started to rebound!

How will the market trend next? I'll say this: short-term sentiment might bounce a couple more times, but the upside is limited; the real danger lies in the data of the coming weeks; as long as employment or inflation shows any weakness, risk assets will immediately lie flat; BTC will likely sway at high levels, gradually weakening, and market sentiment will grow colder.

Finally, here’s a risk-free strategy: don't blindly catch the bottom, don’t let a rebound trick you into going all-in! Preserving capital is more important than anything else now; don't always think about making big money. You should know that the real opportunity to catch the bottom always comes quietly when no one is shouting to catch the bottom anymore.

Top-tier news, top-tier layouts, the same opportunities, the same gains, follow along for the rewards, the strategy continues, and guessing is no better than 聊天室. #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储降息