Bitcoin is currently in its own tug-of-war phase: on one side hit by uncertainty over The Fed's policy and regulatory pressure, on the other side continuously receiving support from increasing institutional interest. In recent days, three major developments have shaped market dynamics.
On December 11, 2025, Paxful pleaded guilty to facilitating illegal transactions worth $3 billion between 2015 and 2019, including millions of dollars related to human trafficking. The U.S. Department of Justice assessed that the platform intentionally marketed lax KYC processes to attract high-risk users while ignoring compliance with sanctions. Although the initial fine reached $112.5 million, Paxful's financial condition reduced that amount to only $4 million. This case adds regulatory pressure and triggers short-term negative sentiment, although its impact on the broader market tends to be limited.
At almost the same time, The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50–3.75% and announced the purchase of Treasury bonds worth $40 billion to enhance liquidity. Bitcoin briefly surged to $94,400 before weakening again after Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation is still not fully under control. This policy created mixed signals: volatility increased, but medium-term prospects remain open if ETF fund flows strengthen alongside lower capital costs. The $94,500 level has now become a psychological barrier that determines the next direction.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is once again grabbing attention. On December 11, its trading volume surpassed Amazon, driven by the company's Bitcoin holdings amounting to $6.3 billion. Michael Saylor referred to Bitcoin as a new foundation for the economic market, a view that is increasingly accepted by institutional players. Nevertheless, the latest purchase by MSTR - 430 BTC worth $51.4 million, shows a more cautious accumulation strategy compared to the previous quarter.
Overall, Bitcoin is at the crossroads of regulatory risk and liquidity opportunities. The Paxful case and The Fed's cautious stance are holding back momentum, but corporate adoption and increasing institutional interest provide strong support. The big question now is whether ETF fund flows and buying pressure from Asia can balance Western regulatory risks ahead of the first quarter of 2026. #BTC $BTC
