The meeting at three o'clock in the morning has concluded. To put it simply, the Federal Reserve has given a stick and then a date.

That stick is: interest rate cuts may come later and be smaller.

According to the latest dot plot, their expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are much more 'stingy' than the market had imagined.

This actually aligns with our previous judgment: Is it easy to expect significant rate cuts this year? Not so much. This serves as a suppression of market sentiment in the short term.

That date is: immediately, right now, starting to 'release water'.

The Federal Reserve announced that it will begin purchasing assets this month to inject liquidity into the market. The timing and scale of this action slightly exceeded market expectations, which is considered a direct positive. Hence, both US stocks and cryptocurrency rebounded last night.

However, the Federal Reserve quickly added: this is not quantitative easing, but merely to alleviate short-term funding tightness, and it will stop at some point in the future. In other words, this water is 'time-limited irrigation', not 'open floodgates'.

So, overall: the meeting results are not bad, and even have a bit of 'expectation management' artistry. Using the expectation of 'late rate cuts' to suppress overheated sentiment, while also using 'immediate liquidity' to support the market. There is a mix of long and short positions, but the market chose to interpret it as positive first.

For our operations, predicting and responding is more important than guessing. Just like our previous long positions in Ethereum at 2700, 2800, 2900, 3000, 3100 were based on liquidity predictions. Last night, taking advantage of the positive news rebound, we gradually took profits near the 3300 area, which can be considered a full stop for this round of layout.

What’s next?

'Good news leads to bad news' is an old saying, but it has its reasoning. Once the known good news (like this liquidity release) is digested by the market, if there is no new momentum afterward, prices will naturally face pressure. Especially since the next meeting (at the end of January) may not involve a rate cut, the market needs a new story.

In summary: the meeting provided a short-term date, but swung a mid-term stick. Our strategy is to take the date (take profits on the positive rebound), while keeping an eye on that stick (expectation of delayed rate cuts). The car won’t keep driving; when it stops, it’s time to consider getting off to take a look. #美联储FOMC会议