#美联储降息 , "Insert Pin", the market basically follows the script.

After the interest rate decision is announced, three points can be captured:

1. What is the decision conveying?

For the third consecutive time, the interest rate is lowered to 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot almost seals off the easing space for 2026.

Removing "low unemployment rate" and adding "downward employment risks" means that the policy focus shifts from inflation to employment.

9-3 split: 1 person wants a larger rate cut, 2 want no cut, internal consensus decreases → future policies will more easily sway with data.

2. What is the $40 billion treasury bond purchase?

It is not the start of a new round of QE. The purpose is to stabilize short-term rates, replenish reserves, and prevent volatility in funding at year-end.

Practical effect: supports liquidity but does not enhance easing expectations.

3. How will the market move next?

Baseline: fluctuating upwards, but slowly rising with many retracements.

Rate cuts + reserve operations support valuations, short-term risk appetite can easily ignite.

However, the ceiling on the 2026 space suppresses expectations, and the market will rely more on earnings rather than storytelling to boost valuations.

Two possible paths may emerge:

Soft landing: slow index rise or high-level consolidation, strong large caps, and reduced elasticity in small caps and high-valuation themes.

Stagflation tail: index surges then falls back, sector switches faster, cash flow and defensive assets take precedence, with greater volatility in growth stocks.