The interest rate decision announced yesterday was in line with market expectations, and the overall tone did not deviate from conventional statements, with a focus that can be completely concentrated on the latest dot plot signals.

According to the dot plot, the median expected interest rate for 2026 is at 3.125%, compared to the current 3.75%, implying a rate cut space of about 50 basis points—equivalent to an expectation of two 25 basis point cuts.

It is worth noting the distribution of internal opinions: one committee member supports a cut of 125 basis points, another supports 100 basis points, and two others support 75 basis points. These four clearly form a relatively dovish camp, whose stance is highly aligned with the new government's policy direction emphasizing economic growth.

Currently, the market's speculation about next year's interest rate path is not significant, and real expectation differentiation may occur after the announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair.

The new Chair is expected to be revealed around Christmas and within the following two weeks, at which point the speculation about the future direction of monetary policy may truly unfold—because one of the current four dovish committee members is likely to be nominated, directly influencing the inclination of subsequent interest rate decisions. $BTC $ETH #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹