The last wave of the market in 2025 is really going to stir things up! The Federal Reserve's year-end meeting made a decisive announcement, and after the 'calming pill' of interest rate cuts landed, the market has shown a wonderful divergence; some coins are dragging their feet like an old hand, while others have quietly entered 'crazy mode'. As someone who has been watching the market for 8 years, today we won’t play games; let's directly uncover the core logic of this wave of the market and help you see who the real leader is and who is just 'putting on an act'!
1. The Federal Reserve's 'three consecutive cuts' have landed; is the spring of liquidity coming?
First, let's highlight some key points for both new and old investors: The Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision of the year was entirely in line with market expectations, providing a wave of 'precise feeding'; the benchmark interest rate was directly cut by 25 basis points, now falling within the range of 3.50%-3.75%. This is already the third interest rate cut this year, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points for the year. Would it be excessive to say 'the easing cycle has been confirmed'?
Some friends might ask: what does this have to do with the digital assets we're trading? To put it bluntly, this thing is like 'injecting liquidity' into the market! Previously, everyone was afraid of tightening liquidity, and didn't dare to move the money in their hands, but now the faucet is slowly opening, and those chasing high returns will definitely flow into risk assets like crypto. Personally, I believe this wave of easing expectations is not short-term speculation, but a medium-term 'support signal', which is equivalent to laying a solid stepping stone for subsequent trends for mainstream varieties.
2. BTC: Stuck at the 92k mark 'dragging its feet', is it gathering strength or just a bluff?
After discussing the macro environment, let's take a look at our 'big brother' BTC. The current price is about $92,038. To be honest, this position makes me anxious for it. The daily chart clearly shows that it has touched the threshold of EMA25 (about $92,298), but it just can't get over it, which is reminiscent of a student who missed passing by one point, a bit awkward.
Here are a few key signals for everyone, all are valuable insights: First, the bottom position of $80,600 has been validated, considered a recent 'safety cushion'; it won't be easy to break below in the short term; but on the flip side, the long-term trend line EMA99 is still at a high of $101,856, far above the current price, indicating that a major reversal is not yet on the horizon, so don't expect to get rich overnight.
Looking at the indicators: KDJ's three lines are hovering at high positions, but fortunately, there is no death cross, indicating that the bulls have not 'broken down' for now, but the risk of overbuying is already very obvious, and chasing highs at this time is absolutely a taboo. The most critical thing is the trading volume, which hasn't been released during the upward attack, it's like going to war without enough ammunition; you can't charge forward.
In my personal view: BTC is currently at the 'halfway up' of the rebound, and to really turn things around, it must strongly break through the range of $92,600 to $94,000. The 92k mark is the 'line of life and death'; if it breaks through, we can look at 95k to 99k later; if it can't break through, it's likely to retrace and test the support near 88k, so don't panic and cut losses.
3. ETH: Stealthily overtaking BTC, could this wave be the 'leading big brother'?
Compared to BTC's 'slow and steady', ETH's performance this time is simply like 'the kid from someone else's family' — the current price is about $3,323, easily breaking through the two key positions of EMA25 ($3,149) and EMA7 ($3,212), and the daily line has closed with a long bullish candle, which is a typical 'effective breakout' pattern. The bullish structure is much healthier than BTC.
ETH's target is very clear now, it's aiming for EMA99 ($3,505). From the KDJ indicator, all three lines are in a strong area, the bullish momentum is still very ample, and there is no sign of stopping. I have discussed with a few old comrades around me, and everyone agrees that this time ETH is likely to lead the rebound market, after all, compared to BTC's 'clumsiness', ETH's elasticity is inherently stronger, and now the technical aspect is also advantageous; if it doesn't rise, then who will?
Here's a reminder for everyone: ETH needs to focus on the range of $3,420 to $3,500 in the near future, this range is just near EMA99 and will have some pressure. But as long as the volume keeps up, breaking through this range shouldn't be a big problem, and then the subsequent space can be fully opened up.
Conclusion: The market doesn't wait for anyone, follow me to avoid detours!
To summarize: The macro environment is favorable, liquidity improvement has supported the market; from a technical perspective, ETH is stronger than BTC and is likely to be the 'leading pioneer' in the next phase, while BTC needs to break through key points to confirm the trend.
Many friends love to chase highs and cut losses in trading because they can't see the core logic clearly. Moving forward, I will keep an eye on the market daily, and promptly update everyone on market dynamics and operational ideas, such as how to operate after ETH breaks $3,500, or at which position BTC can add positions during a pullback. Don't forget to like and follow me @链上标哥 to avoid getting lost! Otherwise, when the next market comes, you might not be able to find me~ Let's continue to analyze the market at the same time tomorrow!
