The Fed's recent actions are simply treating the global market like a monkey; just as they officially announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the interest rate down to the 3.5%-3.75% range, the U.S. stock market was about to celebrate with champagne, and Powell immediately performed 'hawk-dove double act,' pouring a bucket of cold water on the market. What was the result? The U.S. stock market immediately fell into confusion, while instead, it gave the crypto market the signal to charge! As someone who has been watching the crypto market for eight years, let me unpack the tricks behind this today; it's all solid info, don't miss out!
1. Powell's 'yin-yang rhetoric' is actually a grand performance of 'guiding funds.'
Many people were confused after the interest rate meeting: what exactly does this old guy Powell want to do? One minute he's saying 'we need to pay attention to employment pressure,' and the next he's warning 'don't expect continuous rate cuts,' speaking in a confusing manner. But in my view, this is not a contradiction at all; it's a textbook-level 'capital rush' operation!
First, look at their 'dovish heart': the Federal Reserve clearly acknowledged this time that 'the risks in the job market are rising,' which means that their policy focus has quietly shifted from previously stubbornly combating inflation to 'balancing inflation and economic growth.' In simple terms, as long as the economy dares to fall, the door to continue flooding the market to rescue it is always open; this is a reassurance for the market.
Then look at his 'hawkish skin': immediately after, Powell hit the brakes, repeatedly emphasizing that 'this interest rate cut does not represent the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle,' and future policies will 'fully look at data.' The purpose of this operation is very clear: to prevent funds from blindly rushing into traditional assets like U.S. stocks and bonds, as the current traditional financial market is no longer a hot commodity.
The core logic is simple: create uncertainty in the market, forcing funds to flow from the 'leaky' traditional market to the crypto market with 'certain growth potential.' This is not a policy meeting; it is clearly Powell providing a 'migration roadmap' for global funds!
Two, traditional finance's 'bucket' is leaking, and crypto's 'reservoir' becomes a safe haven.
I previously told everyone that the current U.S. stock market is a 'bucket with holes'; no matter how much water (liquidity) you add, it won't hold much. Today's sharp drop in tech stocks once again confirms my judgment: capital has not exited the market, but is 'moving house'!
More critically, the duration of the U.S. government shutdown has set a historical record, and the credibility of fiat currency is visibly 'breaking down.' When ordinary people find that the so-called 'global hard currency' USD is also unreliable, Bitcoin's characteristic of 'code is trust' becomes highly sought after. This is not speculation but a genuine awakening of risk aversion demand; it is the result of market choice!
In simple terms, the current crypto market is no longer the niche market that could only rely on speculation; it is increasingly seen as a 'safe reservoir' by more and more funds. Especially against the backdrop of damaged trust in traditional finance, this trend will only become more apparent.
Three, the three-character strategy for layout in the crypto circle: fast, accurate, ruthless, along with the December practical guide.
Based on tonight's Federal Reserve decision and my assessment of the market, I have summarized a set of strategies for layout that are 'fast, accurate, and ruthless.' Newcomers can use them directly, so remember to save it!
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Don't chase high when benefits are realized; wait for a pullback before acting.
Once the interest rate cut news lands, Bitcoin has already made a rebound, which is very normal. But everyone must not get too excited; Powell's words are full of pitfalls, and the market now needs to digest these contradictory signals. Chasing high now will likely leave you hanging at a short-term high, which is not worth the loss. My advice is: patiently wait for a pullback, act when it reaches key support levels, so the cost is lower and the risk is smaller.
2. Mid-term (December - Q1 next year): Data is king, keep a close eye on the financial calendar.
Powell said, 'Policy looks at data,' and this is not just empty talk. The upcoming monthly non-farm data, CPI data, and PCE data could all become the trigger for market fluctuations. Make sure to mark the financial calendar in red; if the data is good, the Federal Reserve might make hawkish statements again, and the market is likely to crash; if the data is bad, dovish expectations will rise, and the market might rally. This kind of bidirectional fluctuation is a great opportunity for us to buy low, so don't miss it.
3. Long-term (2025 full year): Soft landing is the core main line, and the trend is likely upward.
In fact, you don't have to be tangled about how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates; the core question is this: can the U.S. economy achieve a soft landing? If it can transition smoothly, the crypto market will definitely welcome a golden period of development; if it unfortunately hard lands, Bitcoin's risk-averse properties will be even more pronounced. Regardless of the situation, the long-term trend of the crypto market is upward, and I have never doubted this.
4. Newcomer's December 'Life-Saving' Operation Checklist (Must Read)
Position management: You must keep more than 30% cash; you absolutely cannot be fully invested! In a market with this kind of bidirectional risk, flexibility is more important than anything else. Keeping cash allows you to have the initiative when opportunities arise.
Selection of targets: Allocate 70% of your position to top mainstream coins, as these are the first choice for institutional capital and have stronger stability; the remaining 30% can be used to lay low for some quality hot altcoins with low transaction fees, such as those recently riding on the popularity of Musk (those who understand know). These types of coins have low chips and high volatility, suitable for small capital speculation, but be sure to control your position well.
Operational discipline: Build positions in batches, you absolutely cannot go all in! This is the most common mistake for newcomers. My habit is to add to the position every time it drops by 5%, slowly lowering the cost. Even if I get caught in the short term, I have a bottom line in my mind.
Four, the 'sneak attack' opportunities for popular small altcoins; don't miss them but don't be greedy.
Tonight, there's a detail I wonder if everyone noticed: Ethereum's transaction fees are currently at a low. What does this mean? For small altcoins, the cost of pulling up is very low! Recently, some small altcoins riding on celebrity hotspots have already begun to show unusual movements, and I believe everyone has noticed it too.
These types of coins have distinct characteristics: concentrated chips, high community activity, and fast pull-up speed, potentially increasing several points in just one day. But the risks are equally high, dropping without warning. So my advice is: only use small funds to lay low, take profits when you can, and never treat them as the main position for trading. In simple terms, these types of coins are the 'seasoning' of the market, not the 'main course'; don't get things backwards.
To put it bluntly, don't wait until institutions have completed their positions before you wake up.
According to the current trend, by the time the next interest rate meeting ends in December, Bitcoin will likely have stabilized above 55,000. If you hesitate and observe every day now, you are actually giving institutions time to build positions. By the time the market truly welcomes a big trend, your cost might not be at the current price.
Finally, I'll leave everyone with a thought-provoking question: if this wave of capital migration can last until Q1 next year, will Bitcoin break through the 60,000 mark first, or will it sprint directly to its previous high? I welcome everyone to leave your opinions in the comments section. Also, follow me, don't get lost! I will continue to track market dynamics and share practical strategies every day to help you avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities. After all, in the crypto market, choosing the right direction and following the right people is more important than anything else!
