Internal Serious Divisions: 10∶3 Vote Result Sets a Recent Record

The voting result of this Federal Reserve resolution was 10 votes in favor and 3 votes against, resulting in a rare division in recent years. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt advocated for maintaining interest rates, while Governor Milan argued for a one-time cut of 50 basis points.

The latest economic forecast (SEP) indicates that the median federal funds rate is expected to remain at 3.00% in 2025 (which means a total of two 50 basis point cuts throughout the year), consistent with the September forecast; however, only one 25 basis point cut is reserved for 2026, in line with previous projections. More notably, some members have raised their rate forecasts for 2026, and even three members believe that an increase may be necessary in the future, highlighting that internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the subsequent easing path have reached a recent peak.

Powell's Core Viewpoint at the Press Conference: Policy is in a Good Place, Next Step is Unlikely to be Rate Hike

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that the current interest rate level is sufficient to address various economic scenarios, and the next action is "extremely unlikely" to be a rate hike, which is not part of the baseline scenario for the committee members. At the same time, he emphasized that the committee will maintain a high degree of data dependence and will not provide timely assessments of the policy path for January and beyond, but did not offer clear forward guidance. The market interpreted this as a "dovish pause": the probability of significant short-term easing has decreased, but the rate-cutting cycle has not completely ended.

Subtle Changes in the Statement Wording: New Addition of "Carefully Assess New Data" Implies Caution

Compared to the November statement, this statement adds a sentence: "When considering any further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the committee will carefully assess the upcoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks." This wording has historically appeared multiple times on the eve of a pause in the rate-cutting cycle and is viewed by the market as a clear signal that the Federal Reserve is about to enter an observation period. #美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议