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1. Core Nature: "Hawkish Rate Cut", prioritizing safety over strong stimulus: This is the third 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, essentially a "risk management adjustment" aimed at addressing the slowdown in the job market and preventing an economic downturn. However, due to inflation still exceeding the 2% target, the Federal Reserve is signaling "future tightening" through strong guidance to avoid excessive easing.
2. Key Contradiction: Unprecedented internal divisions, policy uncertainty at its peak: The 9:3 voting result (2 opposed the rate cut, 1 advocated a 50 basis point cut) is the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019. The dot plot shows over half of the officials advocating to maintain or raise rates in 2026, and the consensus of a "25 basis point cut next year" is extremely fragile.
3. Market Impact: Global liquidity provides a cushion, asset differentiation intensifies: US stocks temporarily rise on liquidity, but growth stocks are under pressure while value stocks are stronger; the China-US interest rate spread narrows, and northbound capital may continue to flow in, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks; gold can act as a "ballast" to hedge against volatility, and the dollar remains relatively strong in forward support.
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