Recently, I've been trading too frequently on short-term positions. I paused to glance at the market and suddenly felt a strong sense of unease—something seems off in this market!
First, looking at the microstructure, in the past, a rebound of this level would typically hold for about 48 hours before a pullback. Now, it's not even lasting 4.8 hours before collapsing.
This kind of 'starts off weak' trend reminds me of the early stages of a bear market.
This round of BTC is indeed quite strong, but ETH and SOL, the second and third in line, are performing poorly, remaining completely invisible in this so-called 'institutional bull market': no technological breakthroughs, no application explosions, and they can't even drive sentiment.
To put it bluntly, they seem to be following in the footsteps of LTC and XRP, which once shone brightly but are now slowly losing vitality.
In the past, Vitalik used to frequently discuss technology and sketch out blueprints, but now the Ethereum Foundation's presence is diminishing, leading to doubts about whether they've made enough profit to just kick back.
A healthy bull market relies on sector rotation and mainstream coins working in tandem. Currently, funds are tightly holding onto BTC, while other mainstream coins continue to languish. This structure is inherently fragile, like paper.
On the contrary, BNB has been quietly doing its work, hinting at a strategy of making profits without making noise.
Looking at the macro situation, the U.S. is currently a mess, with intense infighting between the two parties and high costs associated with maintaining its ally system.
Trump, in an effort to boost economic performance numbers, is operating on multiple fronts: pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, changing officials, creating government shutdown risks, and frequently swinging the tariff stick. These actions are quietly eroding the credibility of the U.S. government and the dollar.
The Nasdaq is hitting record highs, dragging the crypto market upwards, but the foundation for this increase is flimsy. The market has long digested the expectations for interest rate cuts, and once they actually occur, it's highly likely to be a scenario where 'positive news turns into negative news.'
All signals point increasingly clearly towards one conclusion: we may be on the brink of some level of collapse.
Chaos has always been an opportunity for ordinary people to rise, as most people are not vested interests.
Now is truly not the time to charge in blindly; staying vigilant and holding onto your chips is the most important thing to do right now!@阿二说币
