Seeing this data interface, seasoned traders know that a critical moment is approaching.
21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week, which seems like just a routine weekly data point, but in the current market environment, every slight fluctuation could trigger a market reaction. The expectation is 191,000, the previous value was 220,000, and currently the phrase 'not yet published' signifies a brief calm before the storm.
My analysis is straightforward: this data serves as a real-time thermometer for observing the 'health' of the U.S. economy and the mindset of the Federal Reserve.
Why do we in the crypto community have to pay such close attention to this?
The logical chain is actually very clear:
Data below expectations (such as the announced value < 191000): indicates that the labor market remains strong and the economy is resilient. This will reinforce the expectation that the Federal Reserve is 'not in a hurry to cut rates and will maintain high rates longer.' Typically, the US dollar will gain support and strengthen, while risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, will feel pressure and are likely to face a pullback in the short term.
Data above expectations (such as the announced value > 191000, especially exceeding the previous value of 220000): indicates that the labor market is starting to loosen, and the economy may be cooling. This will significantly increase market bets on the Federal Reserve turning to rate cuts earlier. The US dollar is likely to weaken in response, while cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, acting as hedges against the dollar's value and future liquidity, will have strong buying reasons, greatly increasing the probability of an upward move.
So, this is definitely not just employment data; it is the string that influences global capital sentiment and affects expectations of US dollar liquidity. When the string moves, the market resonates.
What should we do next?
Here are some practical suggestions for my followers, seasoned traders handle it this way:
• Before the announcement (next 5 hours): Maintain your positions and restrain yourself. Do not bet on direction or open heavy positions at this time. The market is waiting for guidance; volatility may be compressed, but uncertainty is at its highest. Save your bullets for the most assured moments. • At the moment of the announcement (21:30): Keep a close eye on the market, especially the BTC and ETH exchange rates against the US dollar. Trading software will experience sudden and violent fluctuations. Do not blindly chase highs or lows; wait for the first wave of market sentiment to be released (about 1-5 minutes), and see the true direction clearly. • After the announcement (critical decision period): • If the data is significantly negative (far below expectations): If the market falls, do not rush to bottom-fish. Observe whether the support level can hold. If it breaks key support, the short-term trend will weaken, prioritize reducing positions or staying on the sidelines until the market digests the panic. • If the data is significantly positive (far above expectations): If the market rises strongly, look for opportunities to enter in batches during pullbacks. Pay close attention to whether it can break through recent resistance levels. If it can break out with volume, it is likely to start a trend based on 'rate cut expectations,' and you can go with the flow, but be sure to set a stop-loss. • If the data meets expectations: The market may use a wave of fluctuations to 'celebrate' the elimination of uncertainty, then return to the original technical trends. At this time, focus on technical patterns and structures, executing according to your original trading plan.
Remember, data is just a catalyst; it amplifies market sentiment but does not change long-term trends. Our core advantage lies in planning and discipline, not prediction.
In the words of seasoned traders: 'Don't start running before the gun goes off, but once it does, make sure you are running on the correct track.' Tonight, let's calmly observe and let the market present its answers.
Stay focused; we will see the outcome tonight.
