The Bank of Japan suddenly wants to raise interest rates, and the global market is trembling! BTC has been like a roller coaster these days, soaring at times and crashing at others. Now the four-hour chart has already shown a 'death cross'. Is this a collapse or a trap? Today, let's break it down thoroughly and understand both the news and technical aspects!
News: The Bank of Japan suddenly 'changes its stance', will global funds flow back?
More than 90% of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, increasing the rate from 0.50% to 0.75%! And that's not all, by September next year, the rate may soar directly to 1%!
Why can this event shake BTC?
The yen is the world's largest arbitrage currency; with one interest rate hike, the cost of capital for borrowing yen to trade assets skyrockets, and hot money may withdraw from high-risk assets and flow back to Japan.
The Japanese government actually supports interest rate hikes! This indicates that inflation and the depreciation of the yen can no longer be contained, and global liquidity tightening expectations are intensifying.
BTC is a liquidity-sensitive asset; once 'cheap money' decreases globally, selling pressure may surge in the short term!
Technical aspect: A 'death cross' has appeared on the four-hour chart, and the key level of 91000 has been breached!
Take a look at this four-hour K-line chart; several signals are extremely dangerous:
MACD death cross confirmed: The DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, and the green bars have turned red, which is a typical short-term bearish signal! Last time a death cross appeared, BTC dropped nearly 10%.
BOLL indicator opening downwards: the price has broken below the middle track and is approaching the lower track, showing a clear weak pattern.
Key level lost: The 91000 support has been breached, the next line of defense is around 84000; if it breaks below, it may trigger panic selling!
RSI weak zone: RSI1 has entered the oversold edge, but hasn't bottomed out yet, indicating that the downward momentum hasn't fully released.
Personal opinion: Be wary of a waterfall drop in the short term, but a sharp decline could be a good opportunity to buy the dip!
Before the interest rate hike in December, BTC is likely to continue facing pressure, with funds taking precautions in advance; the short-term target looks towards the 84000-85000 range.
However, if it really drops to around 84000, it could be a golden buying opportunity! The impact of Japan's interest rate hike is on short-term liquidity, but the long-term logic for BTC hasn’t changed; a sharp drop can actually be a chance for gradual positioning.
Key to watch is trading volume: If it breaks below 84000 with increased volume, run quickly; if it stops falling with decreased volume, you can gradually accumulate.
Aggressive players: If the rebound fails to exceed 91000, go short, set a stop loss at 93000.
Long-term coin holders: You can place orders in batches in the 84000-86000 range, with a stop loss if it breaks below 8000.
Keep an eye on December 18: the date of the Bank of Japan meeting; after the news lands, there may be a violent rebound as the negative news is fully priced in!
The market is always counterintuitive; when others panic, you must remain calm! Interest rate hikes are both a crisis and an opportunity! Follow me as I guide you through bull and bear markets, seizing every signal for wealth!
Those who want to follow the thoughts can pay attention to @Crypto天机子 ; a chat room has someone!
