The Bank of Japan suddenly raises the interest rate scythe, causing a stir in the global market, with BTC experiencing a terrifying rollercoaster ride; a death cross is suddenly appearing on the four-hour candlestick chart, the critical support at $91000 has been breached, and the life-and-death line at $84000 is in jeopardy! Is this operation a precursor to a crash or a trap to lure shorts? Let's peel back the fog and uncover the truth from the perspective of capital and technical analysis!

Breaking news: Yen interest rate hike triggers a global capital migration


According to over 90% of economists' predictions, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in its meeting on December 18, pushing the rate straight to 0.75%, and is more likely to soar to 1% next year! This is not a trivial matter; as the world's largest arbitrage currency, an interest rate hike means a surge in the cost of borrowing yen to speculate on BTC, and hot money may crazily withdraw from high-risk assets, flowing back to Japan to fill the gap. More critically, the Japanese government rarely supports interest rate hikes, indicating that inflation and yen depreciation have reached a critical point, and expectations of tightening global liquidity are forming a domino effect!

Technical alert: The four-hour chart has flashed a red warning.


Open the four-hour candlestick chart; three major danger signals are simultaneous:

MACD shows a confirmed death cross: The fast line has crossed down through the slow line, and the momentum bars have turned from green to red, which typically indicates that short-term bearish strength is increasing. Looking back at the last similar situation, prices subsequently corrected nearly 10%, which is worth being cautious about.

The Bollinger Bands are showing a downward opening: Prices have not only broken below the middle support line but are also moving towards the lower band, indicating a clearly weak overall trend.

Key support level has been broken: After losing the important level of $91,000, it is crucial to focus on the area around $84,000 below. If this level cannot hold, it may trigger a new wave of selling pressure.

RSI indicator is in a weak range: Although it is close to the oversold edge, the momentum has not yet fully released, indicating that the downward pressure may not have been completely absorbed.

Personal opinion: Short-term risk aversion is primary, and a sharp drop may be a long-term buying opportunity for gold.
Current market sentiment is cautious, with short-term volatility intensifying, but I believe there are hidden opportunities behind this. Based on past experience, before the interest rate hike expectations are realized in December, Bitcoin is likely to continue facing selling pressure, and funds tend to seek safety in advance. I predict that the downward target may be in the range of $84,000 to $85,000.

The key is to observe trading volume: if it breaks below $84,000 with increased volume, it indicates heavy selling pressure, and one should exit decisively; conversely, if it stops falling on low volume, consider gradually buying back positions. It's like fishing; you need to patiently wait for clear signals.

For aggressive traders, if the rebound fails to break through the $91,000 resistance, consider lightly shorting, but be sure to set stop-loss orders to control risk.

For long-term investors, I suggest placing buy orders in batches in the range of $84,000 to $86,000, ensuring stop-loss orders to guard against unexpected events.

Pay close attention to the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18: After the event is realized, the negative news may have been fully priced in, potentially triggering a strong rebound. The market always reacts to expectations in advance, and when the news becomes clear, it may instead welcome a turnaround.

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